A color change? Trump messaging falls flat as Democrats surge in 4 red-state races for governor

Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Membership today.

With one month until Election Day, Democratic gubernatorial candidates hold leads over their Republican rivals in four red states, according to new polling.

The latest surveys, from The New York Times and Siena University, show Democrats outpacing Republicans in Ohio, Iowa, Texas and Alaska - none of which has sent a Democrat to the governor’s mansion in at least two decades.

The results suggest that President Donald Trump — who has sought to frame the midterms as a referendum on himself — has fallen flat in his messaging with many voters across the country.

Trump’s approval rating remains near historic lows after voters’ mounting frustrations with the cost of living and ongoing war in Iran.

The polls, conducted from late September to early October, showed the largest Democratic advantage in Iowa. Fifty-two percent of likely voters said they would support Democratic candidate Rob Sand, compared with 41 percent for Republican Zach Lahn — an 11-point lead.

In Ohio, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton drew support from 49 percent of likely voters, while 45 percent backed Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. A Times poll in June had found the race essentially tied.

Democrats also held an edge in Texas, where the last Democrat to be elected governor won in 1990. Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa led Republican Governor Greg Abbott, 49 percent to 46 percent.

A similar dynamic has emerged in Alaska, where Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads Republican frontrunner Bernadette Wilson, 52 percent to 48 percent.

Kansas was the only state surveyed where a Republican candidate led the governor’s race. Republican Ty Masterson held a 49 percent-to-44 percent advantage over Democrat Cindy Holscher in the contest to succeed the state’s retiring Democratic governor.

Other recent polls have pointed to the possibility of significant Republican losses in the midterm elections, where a president’s party has historically tended to lose congressional seats.

Some Republicans have cautioned, however, that polling has missed the mark in the past. The White House, meanwhile, has sought to shift voters’ attention to Trump’s tax cuts and his administration’s record on immigration.