Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall: Latest Kansas Senate Race Odds and Polls - Newsweek

Kansas' Senate race is showing signs of becoming more competitive than Republicans might have expected in a state where Democrats haven't won a Senate seat in nearly a century.

A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey gives Democrat Adam Hamilton a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Republican Senator Roger Marshall, with libertarian David Graham at 4 percent. The September 15-16 poll is the first independent survey this cycle to show Hamilton ahead.

Marshall is seeking a second term, while Hamilton, the founder of the country's largest United Methodist Church, is trying to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas since 1932. Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to make a stop in Olathe, Kansas, on Monday to show support for Marshall.

Newsweek reached out to Hamilton and Marshall campaigns for comment Friday.

Marshall remains the favorite, though the latest Emerson College poll suggests the race could be closer than many expect.

“This poll finds Democrats with their best chance to win their first Senate seat in Kansas since 1932, in part driven by Democrat Hamilton’s appeal to independent voters, leading by 15 points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

An earlier co/efficient poll, conducted September 8-10 among 915 likely voters, had Marshall leading Hamilton 49 percent to 44 percent, with 5 percent undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.22 percentage points.

Other recent surveys have shown a tighter race.

A Global Strategy Group poll conducted August 12-16 among 800 likely voters found Hamilton narrowly ahead, 44 percent to 43 percent. The one-point difference was within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Another August poll showed Marshall with a narrow lead. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted August 7-8 had Marshall ahead 46 percent to 45 percent. The available results do not report a margin of error.

Election forecasters have said the Senate race in Kansas has become more competitive since Hamilton won the Democratic nomination in August, though Marshall is still favored to win. The Cook Political Report shifted the contest from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" after Hamilton’s primary win.

But prediction markets remain much more favorable to Marshall.

Kalshi gives Marshall a 74 percent chance of winning, compared with about 26 percent for Hamilton as of Friday. Similarly, Polymarket gives Marshall a 71 percent chance of winning and Hamilton a 28 percent chance.

The Emerson poll points to independents as the reason the race is close. Hamilton leads that group 42 percent to 27 percent, according to the poll, while independents in the governor's race break for Republican Ty Masterson by two points.

Favorability ratings are close to a wash. Marshall is underwater, 41 percent favorable to 48 percent unfavorable. Hamilton's numbers are better on paper, 41 percent favorable to 30 percent unfavorable, though 13 percent still don't know enough about him to have an opinion, a gap that could move either direction before November.

The poll also found President Trump's approval rating in Kansas at 40 percent, with 53 percent disapproving. Governor Laura Kelly's approval sits at 46 percent. The economy is the top issue for Kansas voters at 48 percent, well ahead of healthcare, threats to democracy, housing affordability, education and immigration.

Cook Political Report moved the race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican on August 5, shortly after Hamilton won the Democratic primary. The state has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+8. Fifty Plus One also rates the race Lean Republican, though its forecast gives Marshall a larger edge.

Kansas remains a strongly Republican state. Trump won the state by 16.1 points in 2024, up from 14.7 points in 2020. The state's electorate is also heavily white and non-college-educated, groups that have generally leaned Republican in recent elections.

Kansas has given Republicans a long run of Senate victories, and Marshall has never lost a race by more than single digits. But the state’s political history is more complicated once voters get beyond the Senate.

Kelly has won two terms, and a 2022 ballot measure that would have removed abortion protections from the state constitution was rejected by 59 percent of voters.

Marshall is leaning into the Republican coalition that has carried the state for decades, focusing on rural voters and warning that a Hamilton victory could help Democrats take control of the Senate.

Hamilton, meanwhile, is presenting himself as a centrist. He points to his own congregation, which he says is split roughly evenly among Democrats, Republicans and independents, as an example of the voters he hopes to bring into his campaign.

Hamilton, a first-time candidate, founded Church of the Resurrection in Leawood, the nation’s largest United Methodist Church.

He built his church from a few members meeting in a funeral home chapel in 1990 into a 25,000-member congregation with nine locations across the Kansas City area. He has written more than 30 books, mostly on Christian theology.

He won the Democratic nomination in August after campaigning as a faith-based moderate who could compete in conservative Kansas. He raised $3.6 million during the first two months of his campaign, leading Democrats to argue that the Senate race in Kansas could be more competitive than expected this year.

Marshall has branded Hamilton as "too woke for Kansas."

But Hamilton described himself as a centrist, running partly on "bringing people together." His congregation is nearly evenly split between Democrats, Republicans and independents, he said.

Marshall sued more than 700 patients over unpaid bills ranging from as little as $101 to several thousand dollars over his decades-long medical career, The New York Times reported. Authorities arrested about 81 patients after they missed court appearances related to those cases.

About half the lawsuits were filed under Marshall's name, and the rest were filed by Heartland Regional OBGYN, the Great Bend medical practice that Marshall solely owned from 1998 to 2012 and then co-owned until 2019.

Most of the patients who were sued lived in Barton County, a rural area where the rates of uninsured people and poverty are above-average, according to the Times. The patients were reportedly routinely charged an 18 percent annual interest rate on outstanding bills, and some had their bank accounts garnished.

Steven Johnson, an attorney who often represented Marshall in debt cases, told the Times that the warrants and arrests were necessary to ensure debtors attended court dates. "If defendants were allowed to appear only when they wanted to without any consequences the court would get no business done," he said.

Marshall's campaign defended his record, arguing that he had long treated patients regardless of their ability to pay and that judges, not doctors, issued warrants.

Payton Fuller, a spokeswoman for Marshall's campaign, said the hospital "provided millions in uncompensated care" and "used the exact same billing and outside collection procedures as every other business or hospital in Kansas."

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Sam Wilson.