Annie Andrews Polling Against Graham Compared to Harrison in 2020 South Carolina Race - Newsweek

Democrat Annie Andrews trailed Republican Senator Darline Graham by only a single point in a new poll of the South Carolina Senate race published on Friday, as Democrats eye the Palmetto state as a potential pickup opportunity in the 2026 midterm elections.

South Carolina has long been one of the most solidly conservative states in the country, backing President Donald Trump by nearly 18 points in the 2024 presidential election.

But as Trump’s nationwide approval rating slips, Democrats are hoping to expand the Senate map in the November 3 election. More traditionally Republican states like South Carolina, Kansas and Mississippi are drawing attention from Democrats in addition to double-digit Trump 2024 states that were already Senate battlegrounds like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.

Graham was appointed to the Senate seat following the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, and she won the party's nomination in the Senate race with the endorsement of Trump.

Within the margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points, her support stood at 46 percent, while 45 percent said they planned to vote for Andrews, a doctor and former congressional candidate, in the new InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters.

Other candidates received 5 percent support, while 4 percent were undecided, according to the poll, which was conducted from September 28 to 29, 2026.

It’s the latest poll to show a close race in South Carolina. But South Carolina polls have disappointed Democrats in the past, including in 2020, when data showed a close race between Senator Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison, only for Graham to win reelection by 10 points.

Other polling has given Graham only a slight lead in South Carolina. A recent poll from Trafalgar Group, a Republican pollster, also showed her with a single-point lead, 43 percent to 42 percent, which falls within its margin of error of 2.9 points. It surveyed 1,087 likely voters from September 23 to 25.

An earlier poll from InsiderAdvantage, conducted among 1,200 likely voters from September 8 to 9, showed Graham up only 2 points, 45 percent to 43 percent, which was also within the margin of error of 2.83 points.

These polls mark a leftward shift from 2024, when Trump received 58 percent of the vote in South Carolina against former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 40 percent, an easy victory for the Republican president.

But Democrats see national polls moving in their direction. A recent survey from YouGov and The Economist found that Democrats have a 15-point advantage on the generic ballot, 53 percent to 38 percent, among likely voters. It surveyed 1,003 likely voters from September 25 to 28.

Trump’s approval rating has slipped nationwide amid ongoing frustration with the economy and the cost of living. Democrats believe these numbers could allow them to expand the battleground into more conservative territory like South Carolina.

The Andrews campaign wrote in a statement to Newsweek that voters in the state “don't know who Darline Graham is or what she believes,” criticizing the senator’s “strategy” to “avoid reporters, avoid voters, and attack Annie rather than lay out a plan to help South Carolina.”

"The latest polling comes as Annie continues traveling across South Carolina, talking directly with voters and laying out her plans to cut taxes, suspend the gas tax, and tackle waste, fraud and spending in Washington. Her message is clear: If you care more about your bills than the politics in Washington, this campaign is for you,” the statement reads.

Newsweek also reached out to Graham's campaign for comment via email.

Polling similarly showed a close race between Harrison and Graham in 2020. Of course, polling errors don't repeat from cycle to cycle, so it’s unclear whether there will be a miss this year, or which party could benefit.

A Data for Progress poll released just days before the 2020 election showed Graham up only 3 points against Harrison, 49 percent to 46 percent. It surveyed 880 likely voters from October 27 to November 1, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Graham was up 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent, in a poll from Morning Consult, which surveyed 904 likely voters from October 22 to 31, 2020, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

While polls point to a closer race than expected, South Carolina is still a difficult state for Democrats.

At the presidential level, South Carolina last voted for a Democratic candidate—former President Jimmy Carter—in 1976 and has given Republicans double-digit victories in recent cycles. Trump won by 18 points in 2024, nearly 12 points in 2020 and 14 points in 2016. The state backed Mitt Romney by 10 points in 2012 and John McCain by 9 points in 2008.

South Carolina last elected a Democratic senator in 1998, when it sent Ernest Hollings to Congress’ upper chamber.

South Carolina Democrats generally have a high floor but low ceiling. The Palmetto State is home to a high population of Black voters, who lean toward Democrats, and cities like Charleston and Columbia are more friendly to Democrats. But the more rural areas and suburbs, as well as a high level of racial polarization, have continued to give an advantage to the GOP.

Still, Democrats believe the national environment may be challenging enough for Republicans to allow them to compete in more conservative states.

Trump’s approval was underwater, according to Civiqs, which tracks his approval in each state. Fifty percent of South Carolina voters disapprove of him, while 44 percent give him positive marks, according to the pollster.

Forecasters still give Graham an advantage in this race. The Cook Political Report classifies it as Likely Republican, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball views it as Safe Republican. Polls will continue to be watched as a key gauge of the electorate’s mood ahead of the midterms.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas