Bills at Texans: Predictions, picks and odds for NFL Week 1 game - USA Today
On a light Sunday slate for the opening week, a matchup of AFC powers somehow landed in the 1 p.m. window.
Joe Brady will be making his head-coaching debut for a Bills team that wasn't content to merely run things back after more postseason misfortune brought a disappointing end to last year's otherwise promising campaign. The former offensive coordinator won't get much of a grace period in opening against the Texans, who boasted the league's stingiest defense in yards allowed in 2025 and look even more formidable this year.
How Josh Allen and the league's most prolific rushing attack handle a dominant Houston front no doubt bears watching, but the more intriguing subplot might be found elsewhere. Both Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud and a new-look Bills defense, orchestrated by coordinator Jim Leonhard, are looking to get off to fast starts after facing plenty of offseason questions on whether they could be limiting factors for potentially championship-ready teams.
And Houston's long-maligned but newly reconfigured offensive front and reworked run game will have to prove that neither one will weigh down an offense short on weapons after Jayden Higgins' season-ending knee injury. The Bills, meanwhile, will also look to hold firm in the trenches after ranking 30th last season in yards allowed per carry (5.1).
Every time I say the Bills will win Sunday, someone looks at me cross-eyed. Sure, the Texans have won all four home meetings against Josh Allen's Bills, but the former MVP has claimed nine of his last 10 September starts and, following an offseason of change, Allen will be anxious to show his rapport with offensive coordinator-turned-head coach Joe Brady hasn't skipped a beat. Add new No. 1 receiver DJ Moore to the mix with the league's reigning rushing leader, James Cook, and we've got a stew goin'. The Texans have a tenacious D but to contend, the Bills eventually have to start winning games like this. Why not Week 1?
Will Anderson Jr. referred to this matchup as having an "AFC Championship" feeling. Maybe that depiction will seem lofty by later in the season, but it's not unfounded. If there's one quarterback capable of holding up against Houston's pass rush - and it's not clear that there is - it might be Josh Allen. Buffalo might be able to squeeze just enough from him and its run game to squeak by on the road.
As generally bullish as I am regarding the prospects for the 2026 Bills, they're incorporating several new parts here – and rookie head coach Joe Brady will be juggling the offensive playcalling with overall game management for the first time under fire. Reliant Stadium has also been a house of horrors for QB Josh Allen, who's 0-4 in Houston over the course of his career. And a top-ranked Texans defense (in 2025) that can now bring Jadeveon Clowney off the bench? Yeah.
We've got to have some weird ones for Week 1. We've seen the Bills get off to a slow start before, and this could be a perfect trap game. We know C.J. Stroud has the potential to be lethal through the air, and he could catch a sleepy Bills team by surprise. Buffalo will be fine in the long run, but it wouldn't shock me to see Houston notch an early win at home to start the season.
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