Brazil election pits Lula against Flavio Bolsonaro amid rightward regional shift

Brazilians voted on Sunday in a high-stakes presidential election between incumbent Luiz Incio Lula da Silva and Senator Flvio Bolsonaro, with the contest unfolding as parts of Latin America shift to the right alongside the Trump administration. If none of the 12 presidential candidates gets more than 50 per cent of the vote, the top two will face a runoff on October 25.

Nearly 159 million eligible voters were also choosing 27 state governors, members of state legislatures, all 513 members of the lower house of Congress, and 54 of the country’s 81 senators. Polls closed at 5 pm on Sunday, with those still in line allowed to vote, and counting was expected within hours.

Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for a coup attempt and is an ally of US President Donald Trump. Lula, 80, is running in his seventh presidential election and has strengthened Brazil’s ties with Beijing. Trump allies have also done well in recent elections in Argentina, Colombia, Honduras and Peru.

Lula, whose approval ratings fell sharply during his third term, has tried to turn standing up to the US into a campaign issue. He has repeatedly spoken about the risks of US intervention in Brazil’s election after the Trump administration imposed high tariffs on Brazilian exports, revoked the visa of the country’s ambassador and sanctioned a Supreme Court justice who chaired the investigation that later led to Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction.

After voting, Lula told journalists that he needs “to do double of what we have done” if he is re-elected, and said he was confident of winning in the first round. But he is facing a difficult contest because of an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal that also involved the judge who led the investigation into Bolsonaro. Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo, said: “Many in the Lula campaign were not expecting such a difficult election a few weeks ago, and it is clear to them that the present election is a tough battle and the next ones, without Lula, could be even more so.”

Flvio Bolsonaro has highlighted his closeness to the White House, though he has denied that his campaign received help from the US government. He has promised a crackdown on criminal groups and said Brazil needs better deals with the Trump administration, including in the rare minerals economy, where the country is second only to China. He has also campaigned on freeing his father and bringing him back into politics.

After casting his vote at a polling station in Rio de Janeiro, Bolsonaro told reporters: “Brazil needs change. Brazil can’t stand so much suffering.” He is also dealing with accusations of corruption, including claims that he received millions of dollars from a disgraced banker to allegedly produce a film on his father’s life.

Voters described sharply different reasons for their choices. Rosane Wink, 67, a retired engineer and longtime conservative voter, backed Bolsonaro and his promise to classify criminal groups as terrorist organisations. “It’s a kind of terrorism that they’re doing with us,” she said in Rio de Janeiro, adding that last month a criminal held a gun to her stomach, bit her hand and took her wedding ring. Maria Ribeiro, a 50-year-old mobile phone seller from Brasilia, said she voted for Bolsonaro because she wanted freedom to express her Evangelical faith. “I voted for his father, and I don’t regret it,” she said.

Supporters of Lula pointed to his social policies and his stance towards Trump. Rosngela Resende da Rocha, 69, who was previously a stay-at-home mother, said she backed Lula’s programmes for the “less fortunate” and the way he stood up to Trump. “That crazy guy wants to come in here to buy our country, so that our country will be like it is over there,” she said at a voting centre in Brasilia. “He won’t succeed if Lula wins.” Even among Brazilians living abroad, Lula’s social programmes, including Bolsa Familia, remained a key reason for support. “Thank God I do not need social programs, but I vote for those that need them: health, education, basic sanitation, housing, food,” said Catia Oliveira, 61, who voted from Portugal.

The election left voters choosing between keeping Lula in office or returning Brazil to the right under Flvio Bolsonaro, while also deciding the makeup of Congress, the Senate, state legislatures and governorships across the country.