Democrats’ Chances of Flipping the Senate With 50 Days to Midterm—Polls - Newsweek

This year's midterm elections are only 50 days away, and polls are showing a tight race in key Senate races as Democrats and Republicans battle for control of Congress in November.

Despite a challenging map, Democrats believe the Senate is in play in November, pointing to President Donald Trump’s national approval rating as a factor, which has declined in recent months amid voter frustration with the economy, cost of living and the unpopular war in Iran.

In comments the White House has used in response to multiple polling inquiries, spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek: “The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.”

Ingle added that “no other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump,” arguing that Trump is “working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more.”

The administration maintains that “this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect.”

Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats in Congress if he is unpopular heading into the midterm, and Democrats have been optimistic about their chances of taking control of the House of Representatives. But the Senate is a heavier lift. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats have few clear targets. They must win states Trump won by double digits in 2024 to flip the majority.

Some of these more conservative states appear to be competitive ahead of November, according to recent polls. Those polls have been driving up Democrats’ hopes that they could ride a blue wave to victory.

Democrats have a narrow path to flip the Senate this year. They need to flip four seats, as Vice President JD Vance would serve as the tiebreaker in a divided Senate. Democrats need to hold onto every seat they currently hold, flip two seats they view as top targets and then win two races in double-digit Trump states.

Republicans are eyeing three targets in Democratic-held seats, two of which, Georgia and Michigan, backed Trump in the 2024 election after backing former President Joe Biden in 2020. They also see a potential flip opportunity in New Hampshire, which narrowly backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.

Democrats see Republican-held seats in Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly 7 points, and North Carolina, which backed Trump by 3 points, as their top flip opportunities.

But any other Democratic flips would require them to expand the battleground to more conservative states. There are no other GOP-held seats up for grabs in Harris-won or single-digit Trump 2024 states, so Democrats have to compete in double-digit Trump states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas to flip the Senate.

Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek he believed the Senate would remain in Republican control but is now “not as sure.”

“The contest for Senate control is becoming increasingly competitive, largely due to what continues to come out of the White House—evidenced by the president’s extremely low approval ratings. This latest appearance of essentially a bribe by the President for a good outcome in the midterms will not help,” he said, referring to Trump’s promise to send $5,000 to Americans if Republicans hold onto the House and Senate.

He said the promise “seems desperate” and won’t be taken seriously by “persuadable” voters, describing the proposal as “just really bizarre.”

Reeher said the midterms will be a contest between Trump’s low approval rating and negative feelings toward the direction of the country versus local dynamics that could help Republicans in states like Maine, as well as concerns about Democrats’ tack to the left. There is some room for Democratic upsets in previously safe Republican states, he said.

“Those states will be tough, but we’re seeing some polls that suggest some upsets could happen,” Reeher said.

Bernadette Breslin, National Republican Senatorial Committee national press secretary, expressed confidence in Republicans’ chances in a statement to Newsweek.

“American voters won’t be fooled by Democrats’ empty socialist promises like Medicare for All which would bankrupt families with tax hikes and eliminate union workers’ private healthcare plans,” she said.

Here is a look at where polls stand in key races.

Alaska voted for Trump by more than 13 points in 2024.

But things have been shifting in the state. A leftward shift in cities like Anchorage and Fairbanks has narrowed the GOP’s margins, and the state has an independent streak.

Democrats are optimistic about their nominee, former Representative Mary Peltola. She represented the state’s at-large congressional district from 2022-25 and is the only Democrat to win statewide in the past few years. She is running against Republican Senator Dan Sullivan.

Interestingly, there will be two Dan Sullivans on the ballot—the incumbent senator as well as a Republican challenger who advanced into the general election despite criticism from the GOP, who has cast his candidacy as an effort to confuse voters. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, so whichever candidate wins will still need to win an outright majority of votes by the end of tabulation.

The vast, rural state is difficult to poll, but there have been a handful of recent surveys that provide a look at where the race may stand.

The latest Alaska Survey Research poll showed a tight race, with Peltola leading Sullivan in the final round of ranked-choice, 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent. It surveyed 1,495 likely voters from August 20 to 23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Peltola had a larger lead in a poll from Data for Progress, which surveyed 578 likely voters July 28-August 4. It showed Peltola up 6 points, 53 percent to 47 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

However, a poll from The New York Times and Siena University, conducted among 593 likely voters June 15-29, showed Sullivan up 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The Cook Political Report classifies the race as a toss-up.

Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff has built up a polling lead in his reelection bid for the Peach State, the nation’s newest swing state. Ossoff first entered office in 2021, and has been floated as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, though he has said he is uninterested in running.

Georgia was viewed as a Republican-leaning state for much of the 2000s and 2010s but emerged as a battleground in the past few election cycles. It narrowly backed Biden in 2020 before flipping back to Trump in 2024. Republicans believe it could be competitive because of Trump’s victory two years earlier, but Ossoff is viewed as having an advantage.

He is facing a challenge from Representative Mike Collins, a Republican.

The latest poll from InsiderAdvantage found 50 percent of Georgia voters surveyed said they would back Ossoff in November, while 43 percent said they plan to vote for Collins, a sitting representative from Georgia's 10th District. Seven percent of respondents said they were undecided about how they would vote in the general election.

The poll surveyed 800 likely voters August 16-17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points. It was first reported by James Magazine, a statewide political publication in Georgia.

A poll from AARP found Ossoff up 9 points over Collins, 52 percent to 43 percent. It was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research among 1,060 likely voters July 13-16, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A recent Wick survey showed Ossoff up 4 points with 46.7 percent to Collins’ 42.9 percent. It surveyed 1,175 likely voters from June 27-30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

A poll for Fox News put Ossoff's support at 56 percent to Collins’ 43 percent—a 13-point margin. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research among 1,002 registered voters June 23-27.

The race is rated Lean Democratic by the Cook Political Report.

Iowa was once a premier battleground that shifted rightward over the past decade.

It backed Trump by 13 points in 2024 and supported the president in each of his three presidential runs after backing former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

But the Senate race appears competitive, according to recent polling.

Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and state legislator Josh Turek are running to succeed retiring GOP Senator Joni Ernst.

Turek led Hinson in a new poll released by YouGov on Friday. He held a single-point lead, 44 percent to 43 percent, among registered voters, and 4 points, 47 percent to 43 percent, among "strict” likely voters. The poll surveyed 2,169 registered voters from September 3 to 8. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percent among registered and likely voters.

Hinson, however, led in the latest Emerson College poll, 49 percent to 44 percent. It polled 750 likely voters from August 31-September 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

She also held a lead of slightly more than 4 points in a Suffolk University poll, 45 percent to 41 percent. It surveyed 500 likely voters from August 20 to 23.

Iowa’s Senate race is viewed as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.

The Maine Senate race is expected to be one of the closest of the 2026 midterms. Republican Senator Susan Collins is running against Democrat Troy Jackson, the former Maine Senate president.

Maine leans toward Democrats, backing Harris by 7 points in 2024, but Collins has been able to win tough elections in the past due to her personal popularity and bipartisan image. But Democrats believe 2026 will be tougher for Collins due to Trump’s approval rating threatening to drag down Republicans even in states he easily won.

Still, Democrats have faced a tumultuous season in Maine. Jackson emerged as the nominee after Graham Platner, who won the primary in June, withdrew from the race following sexual assault allegations he has denied. Jackson emerged victorious from a Democratic convention over the summer.

A series of polls have given Jackson a lead.

The latest YouGov poll showed him with a 4-point lead, 48 percent to 44 percent. It surveyed 1,378 registered voters from September 2-8, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Jackson also led by 3 points in a CNN/SSRS poll, 48 percent to 45 percent. The poll surveyed 880 registered voters from August 31 to September 6 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

A recent Fox News poll showed Jackson up 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent among 1,000 registered voters. It was conducted from August 6 to 10 by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The Cook Political Report classifies the race as a toss-up.

In battleground state Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former Representative Mike Rogers are facing a close race to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters.

El-Sayed, a progressive public health official, defeated Representative Haley Stevens to win the Democratic nomination in a contentious primary. Some Democrats have been nervous that El-Sayed may be too progressive for the state after defeating Stevens, a centrist.

Michigan is a key battleground state that backed Biden in 2020 but flipped to Trump in 2024. Democrats have overall lost ground in the state over the past decade. While it once easily backed Obama, it has become much more competitive.

Polls suggest it will be one of the closest races of the midterms.

El-Sayed led by 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent, in a recent CNN/SSRS poll that surveyed 843 likely voters from August 31 to September 6.

However, a Glengariff Group poll showed a statistical tie. Rogers received 45.8 percent support in the poll, while 44.4 percent of respondents said they would vote for El-Sayed. Nine percent of respondents were still undecided. It surveyed 600 likely general election voters in Michigan from August 31 to September 3.

An EPIC-MRA poll showed El-Sayed up by 4 points, 47 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 600 likely voters from August 22 to 28 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Cook Political Report classifies the race as a toss-up.

Republicans see a potentially competitive race in New Hampshire, which backed Harris by about 3 points in 2024. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, is retiring, leaving open a seat in the light-blue state.

Democrats believe the national environment will help carry their candidate, Representative Chris Pappas, across the finish line, but Republicans believe their nominee, former Senator John Sununu is well-positioned to flip the seat. Sununu held it from 2003 to 2009 before losing to Shaheen.

The latest poll from GOP pollster Fabrizio, Lee & Associates showed the race in a statistical tie, with Sununu receiving 37 percent support and Pappas 36 percent. Other candidates received less than 4 percent support, while 23 percent were undecided about who they would vote for.

The pollster surveyed 600 likely voters in New Hampshire from August 27-30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A recent University of New Hampshire poll similarly showed Sununu with a lead, 45 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 1,878 likely voters August 20-24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.

However, other polling gives Pappas a slight edge.

A Saint Anselm College poll, conducted among 1,411 likely voters August 17-18, showed Pappas up 7 points on Sununu, 48 percent to 41 percent.

A Peak Insights poll, a GOP internal poll, showed Pappas up a point, 43 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 500 respondents June 24-27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

It’s considered Lean Democratic by the Cook Political Report.

Republicans have been on a winning streak in North Carolina Senate races, with Democrats last winning in 2008. But the Tar Heel State remains a closely divided battleground, and Democrats believe this is the year they manage to win a Senate race there.

It backed Trump by 3 points in 2024.

Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper is running against Republican Michael Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee. Republican Senator Thom Tillis is retiring at the end of the current term.

The Democratic candidate led an Eastern Carolina University poll by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent. It surveyed 675 likely voters from August 31 to September 3 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

An Elon University/YouGov poll showed Cooper up 11 points, 49 percent to 38 percent. It surveyed 565 likely voters from August 21 to 31 with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.

A High Point University poll showed a slightly closer race, giving Cooper a lead of five points, 50 percent to 45 percent. It surveyed 660 likely voters from August 3-12.

The North Carolina Senate race is rated Lean Democratic by the Cook Political Report.

Ohio backed Obama in 2008 and 2012 before shifting rightward in 2016. Since then, it has continued to align itself with Republicans, giving Trump a double-digit victory in 2024.

But former Senator Sherrod Brown is a rare Democrat who has found success in the Trump-era Ohio, winning in 2018 before losing in 2024. He is now seeking a comeback against Republican Senator Jon Husted, appointed to fill the vacancy left by Vice President JD Vance. The victor would be able to run for a full term in 2028.

The latest survey from InsiderAdvantage gave him a 5-point lead, 47 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 1,200 likely voters from September 8 to 9 and had a margin of error of 2.83 percentage points.

Meanwhile, he also led a Fox News poll, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, by 8 points, 53 percent to 45 percent. It surveyed 1,008 registered voters from August 6 to 10 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

However, Husted led an earlier poll released by The New York Times and Siena University by 3 points, 50 percent to 47 percent. It surveyed 601 likely voters from June 15 to 28, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.

The Cook Political Report classifies the race as a toss-up.

Republicans last week descended on the Lone Star State, traditionally a Republican stronghold that has appeared to have entered the playing field in November, for the party's first-ever midterm convention.

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton unseated Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary and is set to face Democratic state Representative James Talarico. Paxton, who has faced a series of scandals, is viewed as particularly vulnerable, though the Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. has signaled that it could spend $10 million on the race.

Democrats have long dreamed of turning Texas blue, and its Democratic-trending suburbs near cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston have led to narrowing margins for Republicans.

From 2000 to 2020, Republican margins shifted from 21 points to fewer than 6 points at the presidential level. The state shifted back rightward in 2024, backing Trump by 14 points, in part due to the stronger national environment for Republicans and his inroads with Latino voters.

But Democrats still believe 2026 could be the year Texas flips.

Several polls show Talarico with a lead over Paxton.

A new AARP poll, conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, showed Talarico up 4 points, 48 percent to 44 percent. The poll surveyed 895 likely voters from August 30 to September 1 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Talarico led Paxton by 5 points in a new YouGov/Univision poll, 48 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 1,000 registered voters from August 27 to September 4, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

A University of Texas poll showed Talarico up 3 points, 42 percent to 39 percent among 1,200 registered voters. It was conducted from August 5 to 13 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.

Meanwhile, Paxton led the latest Emerson poll by a single point, 47 percent to 46 percent. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from August 9 to 10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Overall, prediction markets view the race for Senate control as roughly a toss-up. As of Saturday morning, Kalshi gave the GOP a slight edge, at 51 percent, while Polymarket gave Democrats a 53 percent chance of winning a majority.

Democrats’ chances in the Senate have fluctuated over the past few months. At the start of the year, Republicans had a 67 percent chance of retaining Senate control, but that narrowed, with Kalshi showing a tied race in March, April and May. Democrats were even briefly favored in mid-April.

In July, Republicans had nearly a 60 percent chance of winning Senate control on Kalshi, but that has narrowed in the months since.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Polls will continue to be watched over the coming months to gauge the mood of the American electorate ahead of the midterms. Nearly all states, with the exception of Delaware, have held their primaries, so the contours of the elections are mostly set. Now, candidates will bring their case to voters as both parties hope to compete for Senate control in November.

Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Jason Lemon and Anthony Murray.