Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Flips With White Voters in Red States - Newsweek

President Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped among white voters in six states he carried in 2024, including a 19-point drop in Kentucky, according to Civiqs polling.

White voters, particularly those without college degrees, have formed a central part of Trump's electoral coalition. A large drop in approval among this voting bloc could be trouble for Republican candidates in key elections, particularly in Alaska, Ohio, and Texas.

Trump won white voters nationally 57 percent to 42 percent in 2024, including white voters without college degrees 66 percent to 32 percent, according to NBC News national exit polling.

The latest polls show approval ratings among white voters have dropped, putting Trump underwater in six states where he had net approval ratings of 14 points or more at the start of his term.

Newsweek reached out to the White House via email for further comment on Friday morning.

When Trump took office for his second term on January 20, 2025, 62 percent of white registered voters in Kentucky approved of Trump’s performance and 33 percent disapproved, according to Civiqs polling, for a net rating of plus 29 points for the president.

By September 24, 2026, approval had fallen to 43 percent, while disapproval stood at 46 percent, a massive 32-point plunge in net approval from the voting bloc.

Texas also began from a commanding position.

Trump opened his term with 62 percent approval and 35 percent disapproval among white voters, a net 27-point approval.

The latest reading placed him at 44 percent approval and 47 percent disapproval, putting him underwater in the Lone Star State, which features a key Senate race for Republicans hoping to keep the majority in the upper chamber.

Missouri shifted from 61 percent approval and 36 percent disapproval to 46 percent and 47 percent, respectively, marking a 25 point swing in net approval.

Ohio, Alaska—both of which also feature key Senate races—and Arizona tell similar stories among white voters.

Ohio had a net approval drop of 25 points, Alaska 22 points and Arizona 19 points.

The net approval drop among white voters is particularly notable in Alaska, Ohio and Texas. All three states feature key Senate races Republicans once thought were secure after Trump won each state easily in 2024.

As Trump's approval ratings have fallen, all three states have become Democratic targets as they hope to flip control of the Senate and House in November's midterms.

Recent polling in Alaska shows former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola leading Republican Senator Dan Sullivan has emerged as an important Senate battleground, with a September AARP survey finding Trump at 45 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval among likely voters.

Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024.

In Texas, Democratic hopeful James Talarico is leading in a number of polls over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Trump won the Lone Star State by 13 points in 2024.

And in Ohio, polls show a close race between former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and incumbent Republican Jon Husted.

Trump won the state by 11 points in 2024.

The figures come from Civiqs’ continuing online tracker of 132,219 responses taken between January 20, 2025, and September 24, 2026, so they measure changing opinion rather than polling on specific contests.

Because white-voter figures in an individual state are subgroup estimates rather than stand-alone statewide polls, small differences should not be treated as precise forecasts.

Recent national polling also provides wider context.

A CBS News/YouGov survey conducted from September 8 to September 11 found that 45 percent of likely voters viewed their congressional choice as opposition to Trump, versus 28 percent who saw it as support for him. The poll surveyed 2,460 adults and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.

Economic judgments could also play a role in voter bloc's shifting approval. In the CBS/YouGov survey, Trump received 34 percent approval for his handling of the economy and 27 percent on inflation.

Eighty-seven percent of likely voters called the economy very important to their congressional choice, while 82 percent said the same about inflation.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle previously told Newsweek that the “ultimate poll” was the 2024 election, arguing that nearly 80 million Americans backed Trump’s agenda.

Ingle said the administration had made “historic progress” and maintained that the president was working to create jobs, cool inflation and improve housing affordability, with further effects expected as his policies continued to take hold.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to help produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Ben Kelly and Geoffrey Rowland.