El Niño goes wild: Pacific Ocean under siege from tropical cyclones - USA Today

The wild and woolly Pacific basin – fueled by a powerful El Niño – continues to spew forth tropical cyclones of all shapes and sizes. As of the afternoon of Sept. 22, a dangerous Category 5 180-mph hurricane (Hurricane Polo) was threatening the west coast of Mexico and pushing a swath of moisture into New Mexico.

At the same time, a smaller developing system was being watched nervously close to Hawaii.

And to top it off, yet another tropical cyclone, Odalys, could be drawn into a rare meteorological dance in the eastern Pacific with Polo known as the Fujiwhara Effect.

All the action in the Pacific is in contrast to the sleepy Atlantic basin, which has yet to see a single hurricane so far this year. Only six rather unremarkable tropical storms have formed there this season.

Hurricane Polo rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane by the afternoon of Sept. 22 with peak sustained winds of 180 mph and higher gusts as it moves along just off the Mexican coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Overall, Polo's maximum sustained winds increased by an incredible 95 mph in 22 hours. (Between 3 p.m. on Sept. 21 and 1 p.m. on Sept. 22).

It's the third Category 5 hurricane in the eastern Pacific during this hurricane season, putting 2026 into a tie with the 1994 season as the most Category 5s on record by Sept. 22, Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach posted on X.

Still, "despite its great strength, Polo remains a relatively small cyclone with its hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds estimated to only extend about 30 and 80 nautical miles from the eye, respectively," according to a Sept. 22 forecast discussion from the hurricane center.

Otherwise unremarkable Tropical Storm (soon to be hurricane) Odalys could interact with Polo as the storms edge closer together off the coast of Mexico in a few days.

"A stunning scenario would be two major hurricanes side-by-side off the southern tip of Baja California, [while] one (Polo) or the other (Odalys) sling-shots away from the 'binary system,'" noted Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue on X.

"Fujiwara Effect hurricane or typhoon interactions are highly unpredictable-->climate chaos!," Maue said on X.

The hurricane center mentions this interaction in their forecast discussion of Polo: "The steering currents become more uncertain over the weekend when Polo reaches the western edge of the ridge and nears Tropical Storm Odalys to its west."

And it's also mentioned in the Odalys (pronounced oh-DAL-ess) discussion: "After day three, the uncertainty in the track increases due to potential interaction with Hurricane Polo, which could cause Odalys to slow down late in the forecast period."

When two storms or hurricanes spinning in the same direction pass close enough to each other, they begin an intense dance around their common center known as the Fujiwhara effect, the National Weather Service said.

The effect is thought to occur when storms get about 900 miles apart.

Storms involved in the Fujiwhara effect are rotating around one another as if they had locked arms and were square dancing. Rather than each storm spinning about the other, they are actually moving about a central point between them, as if both were tied to the same post and each swung around it separately of the other.

A good way to picture this is to think of two ice skaters who skate quickly toward each other, nearly on a collision course, grab hands as they are about to pass and spin vigorously around in one big circle with their joined hands at the center.

According to Weather.com, the stronger storm often dominates, tugging the weaker one into its circulation, but in rare cases, two storms of similar strength can combine, creating a single, more powerful storm.

Hawaiian Island residents, who have felt the influence of six tropical storms or hurricanes already this year, are being asked to watch the weather closely yet again as a seventh potential storm could bring rain to the Big Island as early as Sept. 23.

The potential storm is actually the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, which dissipated on Sept. 15. The hurricane center indicates environmental conditions are favorable for the remnants to become a tropical depression again, with the chances of storm formation at 70% over 48 hours and 90% over the next seven days.

By Sept. 24, computer forecast models show a potential tropical cyclone drifting toward the Big Island, according to the weather service office in Honolulu. Heavy rains associated with the storm are forecast to spread over the southeastern Hawaiian Islands starting Sept. 23, whether or not it organizes into a named storm, the national weather service said.

While the strength and position of the storm still appear highly uncertain, there’s "a significant potential for a prolonged heavy rain event" over the windward and southeast areas of the Big Island, the weather service warned. A flood watch could be issued later in the week.

Potential wind impacts also remain uncertain, but the weather service indicates a "high likelihood" of at least gusty trade winds of 50 to 60 mph by Sept. 25.

As Hurricane Polo moves along in the Pacific south of Mexico, it's helping to push an intense swath of tropical moisture northward into New Mexico this week, said Bob Oravec, a meteorologist at the weather service's Weather Prediction Center.

"Even though Polo will remain well offshore, some of its higher moisture values are being drawn northward," Oravec said. In general the Albuquerque weather service region is forecast to receive an average of 3 to 4 inches of rain through Friday, with the potential for more than 5 inches in some isolated locations.

Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver are national correspondents for USA TODAY with a focus on weather and climate. Reach them at drice@usatoay.com and dpulver@usatoday.com.