Experts Warn Atlantic Storm Could Be 2026’s First Hurricane Amid El Niño - Newsweek

Weather experts are warning that the first hurricane of the Atlantic season could form near Bermuda later this week after the developing El Niño climate pattern has contributed to a below-average year so far.

The development comes as the 2026 Atlantic season has set the record for being the longest a season has gone without a hurricane forming since 1966 when satellite technology became available. Before this year, the latest occurrence of the season's first hurricane was September 11 in 2002 and 2013.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. Typically, the season's most active time falls in September, but so far this year there have been no hurricanes. Part of that is due to increased wind shear across the Atlantic basin, which can be influenced by El Niño and can destroy a storm system before it has a chance to form.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle that causes above-average sea temperatures and weakened trade winds in the tropical Pacific. While the pattern can lead to increased hurricane formation in the Pacific basin, it can decrease tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. Forecasts anticipate that El Niño will continue strengthening through the end of the year, with a greater than 90 percent chance it will become "very strong" in the fall and winter months.

However, the quiet Atlantic hurricane season could be coming to an end as meteorologists track a developing disturbance around 350 miles east of Bermuda.

“This could be the system that finally produces the first hurricane of the Atlantic season,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek on Thursday in an email sent to reporters. “If it becomes organized, conditions near Bermuda could support strengthening and potentially allow the system to reach hurricane strength.”

Should such a storm form, it will be named Fay. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said there is a 40 percent chance that tropical formation will occur within the next 48 hours. Chances that it will form within the next seven days are also at 40 percent. Although the storm's organization hasn't changed recently, the NHC said, gradual development of the system is expected to occur over the next few days.

"The system is forecast to move slowly today, and then possibly turn southward on Friday over the subtropical Atlantic," the most recent NHC forecast said. "By Sunday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for development."

DaSilva said people in Bermuda should continue to monitor the storm's development, but the impact to the U.S. was expected to be low.

Several meteorological agencies have been referring to the ongoing El Niño as a "super" event. Although the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) refers to the climate pattern as "very strong," both labels refer to an event in which waters are warmer than average, usually around 2 degrees Celsius above average.

The warmer the waters, the greater the influence on weather. El Niño can influence weather around the globe. In the U.S., it causes the most widespread impacts during the fall and winter months, when cooler, wetter conditions are experienced across the South, with warmer, drier conditions in the North. It also can influence storm track, whether precipitation falls as snow or rain, and extreme cold spells.

In the Atlantic, El Niño can contribute to a 60 percent reduction in the number of days in which a hurricane is present in the basin.

"Think of El Niño as reducing the number of chances the Atlantic gets to produce a long-track hurricane. More wind shear means more disturbances can be disrupted before they have time to organize,” DaSilva said. "During La Niña, lower wind shear typically allows more tropical systems coming off Africa to survive and spend longer periods of time developing over warm Atlantic waters, increasing the potential for significant or extreme impacts."

Meanwhile, the opposite is happening in the Pacific basin, which has seen a very active hurricane season so far.

In the eastern Pacific Ocean, there have been 14 named storms and one unnamed tropical depression, some that have trekked into the Central Pacific basin, which has also seen two additional storms form there this year.

There have been five named storms this year in the Atlantic basin, three of which formed in the Gulf. The storms that have formed are:

In May, the NOAA issued its season forecast, predicting between eight and 14 named storms, including three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes.

An average hurricane season in the Atlantic produces around 14 named storms.

This time last year, seven named storms had formed in the Atlantic, including one major hurricane.

While the disturbance in the Atlantic likely won't have a major impact on the U.S., meteorologists are encouraging those in Bermuda to monitor its progress. Despite the low activity in the Atlantic this year, experts are warning people who live in hurricane-prone areas not to let their guard down, as it takes only one storm to have a devastating impact.

The NHC will continue tracking the disturbance in the Atlantic. As of Thursday afternoon, no tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings were in place.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Anna Skinner and Dave Siminoff.