FIRST READING: Canadian youth just keep getting more Conservative under Carney - National Post
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney before greeting Vietnamese President To Lam during a welcoming ceremony at the Parliament of Canada September 24, 2026 in Ottawa, Canada. Photo by DAVE CHAN /AFP via Getty ImagesArticle contentFirst Reading is a Canadian politics newsletter curated by the National Post’s own Tristin Hopper. To get an early version sent directly to your inbox, sign up here.
Youth are now the single most Conservative demographic in Canada and an election decided exclusively by voters under 30 would be an easy Tory victory, according to figures released by Abacus Data.
The poll is yet more evidence of a uniquely Canadian phenomenon of young people becoming increasingly right-wing while the reverse happens among their elders.
Columnist Jesse Kline keeps you up to date with what’s happening in Israel and the effects of antisemitism on life here in Canada. Friday mornings.
A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.
The next issue of Channel Israel will soon be in your inbox.
We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again
Overall, the Abacus poll released Sunday confirmed what every other pollster is finding: Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals are enjoying a near-indomitable lead, and would likely win any snap election call in a landslide.
Poll respondents backed the Liberals at a rate of 46 per cent – a 12 point lead over the Conservatives’ 34 per cent.
But it was an entirely different story among Canadians aged 18-29 – which is to say, Canadians born between 1997 and 2008. Those respondents backed the Conservatives at a rate of 42 per cent, with the Liberals in a distant second place with 32 per cent.
This means that an election decided exclusively by Canadian 20-somethings would likely install a Conservative majority government. It also means that a voter under 30 is second only to an Albertan in the category of Canadians most likely to vote Conservative.
Among seniors, meanwhile, the precise opposite phenomenon is underway. Abacus found that Canadians over 60 are endorsing the Liberals at a near record-high of 59 per cent, against the 26 per cent still backing the Tories.
The whole phenomenon is an inversion of how these things usually go. It wasn’t too long ago that Canadian electoral demographics followed the more conventional pattern of young people favouring progressive options while older people favoured conservative ones.
