From candidate chaos to leadership revolt? Mbalula faces crucial ANC test - IOL

ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula has rejected calls for his resignation over the party’s candidate-list crisis, as the ANC faces mounting pressure ahead of the November local government elections.

ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula has rejected calls for him to step down over the party’s candidate-list crisis, saying any decision on his position rests with the ANC as it battles to resolve related disputes ahead of the November 4 local government elections.

Mbalula has come under pressure after the ANC failed to complete the submission of its candidate lists before the August 28 deadline in six municipalities: Ingquza Hill, Port St Johns, Mangaung, uMshwathi, Walter Sisulu and Sundays River Valley.

The dispute affects 181 ANC candidates, 130 proportional representation candidates and 51 ward candidates.

The ANC says the candidate information had been captured on the Independent Electoral Commission’s system before the deadline, but technical problems on the IEC's prevented the final submission.

However, IEC Chief Electoral Officer Sy Mamabolo said the commission’s records showed no system activity at or near the times the ANC claimed its officials had been logged out.

“The ineluctable inference to be drawn from this objective evidence is that the ANC simply ran out of time,” Mamabolo said.

The DA has opposed the ANC’s Electoral Court application to have the candidates included, arguing that the party failed to formally submit its candidates by the deadline.

The candidate-list problems have also extended beyond the six municipalities at the centre of the court dispute.

In KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC has acknowledged separate technical capturing errors in eThekwini and Ray Nkonyeni municipalities, where some candidates were placed in incorrect wards, swapped or duplicated.

The party said it had verified the original submissions and requested corrections.

Mbalula has defended his handling of the process and said he would not voluntarily step down.

“If I did something wrong, I will be the first to admit it. If the ANC says steps must be taken because I'm wrong, that will be the decision of the ANC. It's not my decision. I'm not defending myself.” 

Mbalula questioned why some ANC members were already calling for his removal before the party had completed its investigation into the candidate-list problems.

He acknowledged that the candidate-list crisis comes as the ANC leadership faces a crucial electoral test in November, saying the party’s performance will ultimately reflect on those currently in charge.

“This will be a reflection on our leadership, that during our term we did not do well,” he said.

Political analyst Professor Theo Neethling, a research fellow in the Department of Political Studies and Governance at the University of the Free State, said Mbalula carried significant political accountability for the crisis because, as secretary-general, he oversees the ANC’s organisational and administrative operations.

Neethling said the issue was particularly serious because the party’s lists were finalised and submitted close to the IEC deadline, despite the ANC’s own procedures providing for the process to be completed earlier.

The ANC’s internal investigation had also identified shortcomings in the verification of candidates' details, making it difficult to attribute the entire problem to an IEC technical error.

At the same time, Neethling said it would be too simplistic to place the entire blame on Mbalula because the candidate-selection process involved ANC branches, regions, provincial structures, the election committee and the National Executive Committee.

“There are differing views even within the NEC: some members place the blame directly on Mbalula, while others believe the party as a whole and its various structures must accept responsibility,” Neethling said.

“The problem can therefore best be described as a collective organisational failure for which Mbalula, as Secretary-General, bears the ultimate political accountability.” 

Mbalula’s position did not necessarily appear to be in immediate danger while the ANC was pursuing its Electoral Court case, and he was defending his position.

“In the short term, his position does not necessarily appear untenable, especially since the ANC is currently pursuing the matter in the Electoral Court and he is mounting a vigorous defence,” he said.

However, the outcome of the elections could change the political pressure on Mbalula.

“If the court does not uphold the ANC’s case and the missing candidates are consequently unable to participate in the election, the political damage could escalate,” Neethling said.

A significant loss of municipalities or seats would make it harder for Mbalula to avoid questions about accountability within the ANC.

“Should the ANC subsequently lose a significant number of municipalities or seats, there will likely be much stronger pressure to assign accountability within Luthuli House - and Mbalula would find it difficult to avoid that debate,” he said.

Neethling said the crisis could substantially affect Mbalula’s political credibility and future standing in the party, and warned that the impact of the candidate-list dispute would be felt most directly in the municipalities where ANC candidates were not listed, particularly Mangaung.

University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) political analyst Zakhele Ndlovu said Mbalula was ultimately responsible because of his position as secretary-general.

“As the SG, he runs the party. He approved and signed off the final nomination list. This alone makes it harder for him to claim innocence.” 

Ndlovu said Mbalula was unlikely to take responsibility, unless an ANC faction emerged to demand his removal.

“The ANC has historically refused to account for whatever has gone wrong. It is its culture.

“As the 2027 elective conference approaches, one faction will emerge to call for his head,” he predicted.

Ndlovu said the candidate-list crisis could become a defining issue in the factional contest ahead of the 2027 elections and could damage the ANC’s credibility.

He questioned why voters should trust the party to solve the country’s problems if it could not resolve its own internal issues.

Ndlovu also raised the future of the Government of National Unity, describing the arrangement between the ANC and DA as one based largely on political necessity.

“Let's never forget that the GNU remains a marriage of convenience. The DA and the ANC have learned to tolerate each other, co-exist because they need each other whenever circumstances dictate,” he said.

The two parties were likely to continue managing the GNU until the 2029 elections, which Ndlovu said would determine whether there was a new political configuration.