Gap Between Flávio and Lula Is Smallest Ever in First Round of Presidential Election - 05/10/2026 - Brazil - Folha de S.Paulo

The gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is the smallest ever recorded in the first round of a presidential election since Brazil’s return to democracy. With 99.99% of ballot boxes counted, the senator received 47.03% of valid votes, compared with 45.16% for his rival, a margin of less than two percentage points.

Since neither of the two received more than half of the valid votes, voters will return to the polls on Oct. 25.

The previous record was in 2022, when Lula received 48.43% and Jair Bolsonaro 43.2%, a gap of 5.23 percentage points. Before that, the smallest gap had been in 2006, when Lula received 48.61% and Geraldo Alckmin 41.64%, a difference of nearly seven points.

At the other end of the spectrum are the 1994 and 1998 elections, won by Fernando Henrique Cardoso in the first round. In 1994, his lead over Lula was 27.3 percentage points, the largest in the series; in 1998, it was 21.35 points.

Since 1989, seven elections have been decided in a runoff, and in every case the candidate who led the first round went on to win. The closest runoff was in 2022, with a gap of 1.8 percentage points.