GOP’s Sununu Surges in Bid to Flip Democrat’s New Hampshire Senate Seat - Newsweek

Democrat Chris Pappas' lead appears to be diminishing versus Republican John E. Sununu in the battle for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire, as midterm elections are roughly four weeks away.

A new poll released by Rasmussen Reports shows that 49 percent would vote for Pappas versus 44 percent who would pick Sununu. The five-point lead is a notable difference from a poll last month that showed Pappas with an 11-point lead over Sununu, 45 percent to 34 percent.

Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is set to retire in the Granite State, opening the seat for November's general election. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up.

Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them. Republicans hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris won New Hampshire during the 2024 presidential election over President Donald Trump by less than 3 percent. The state has not elected a Republican senator in more than 15 years.

Newsweek reached out to both Sununu and Pappas' campaigns via email on Monday for comment.

According to the new poll showing Sununu's gains, 3 percent would pick Constitution Party candidate Edmond Laplante and 4 percent are not sure.

Pappas has 89 percent of Democrats' vote, 15 percent of Republicans and 40 percent of non-affiliated voters, the poll shows. Sununu has 84 percent of Republican support, 8 percent of Democrats' and 44 percent of unaffiliated voters. Pappas has a large lead with women, as 53 percent favor him versus 33 percent for Sununu, while 53 percent of men favor the Republican candidate compared to 42 percent for Pappas.

The survey shows a sizable advantage for Pappas, 46, among those 65 and older, with 58 percent compared to 39 percent as Sununu, 62, who represented the Granite State in the Senate from 2003 to 2009, is favored by those under 40 years old.

The poll was conducted from October 2 to October 4 among 979 likely New Hampshire voters and has a margin of error of 3 percent.

News-rating website AllSides rates Rasmussen Reports as "Lean Right," adding in part that sources with that designation "moderately align with conservative, traditional, libertarian, or right-wing thought and/or policy agendas."

Craig Agranoff, political professor at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek on Monday, "Republicans have an avenue in NH, but it is a narrow one. Sununu cutting a double digit Rasmussen lead down to 5 points fits a race Cook already calls a toss up. The Sununu name, ticket splitting, and outside money give the GOP a real shot in a state that often votes one way for governor and another for Senate. A 5 point deficit with a month left is not a win. It is a live race."Agranoff added, "Holding the Senate is not a NH only story. Republicans need this seat or a similar pickup to offset losses elsewhere. If Sununu keeps closing, it becomes part of the majority math. If the lead holds near five, it is a warning, not a path."

A recent survey from the University of New Hampshire shows 50 percent would pick Pappas, 42 percent would pick Sununu, 2 percent would pick Laplante, 2 percent would write in another candidate and 4 percent are undecided.

The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 21 among 1,418 likely general election voters, with a margin of error of 2.6 percent.

In an August survey from the pollster, Sununu was up 45 percent compared to 43 percent for Pappas, 5 percent would have voted for another candidate and 7 percent were undecided. That poll was conducted from August 20 to August 24 among 1,878 likely general election voters, with a margin of error of 2.3 percent. The results for this survey were within the margin of error, making it a statistical tie.

A co/efficient poll last month had the race deadlocked between the two at 46 percent, while 9 percent were undecided. Pappas' favorability was 37 percent compared to a 51 percent unfavorable rating and 13 percent had no opinion. Sununu's favorability was 41 percent compared to a 47 percent unfavorable rating and 12 percent had no opinion. The poll was conducted from September 9 to September 11 among 958 likely general election voters in the Granite State and had a margin of error of 3.15 percent.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins