Half of Texas voters may split their ballots, new poll shows - USA Today
While most election polls are busy counting who's up and who's down in various races, one new poll is looking at Texans who still can't decide and what is driving them to the ballot box, with Election Day only six weeks away.
Texas 2036, a nonpartisan public policy organization, released its 10th annual Texas Voter Poll Sept. 22 and found that one in six Texas voters is both unaffiliated with a political party and undecided on how they plan to vote. About half of all Texas voters also say they're open to splitting their ballot between the parties.
"Even this close to Election Day, a meaningful share of Texas voters is still weighing choices across their ballots," John Hryhorchuk, senior vice president for policy and advocacy at Texas 2036, said. "Yet on many of the issues facing Texas, there is striking agreement, particularly around education outcomes, affordability, electricity and water."
The poll dropped the same day Texas Southern University released a Sept. 22 poll showing Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 47%- 46% in the state's U.S. Senate race. In the Texas governor's race, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by 4 percentage points, 49%-45%.
Here's a deeper dive into what the poll found as Election Day on Nov. 3 draws closer.
The poll was conducted Aug. 22-26 by Baselice and Associates for Texas 2036 and surveyed 1,369 registered Texas voters. Results were weighted to represent registered Texas voters statewide, with an effective sample size after weighting of 1,001 and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Of the one in six voters who are unaffiliated and undecided, 38% say they expect to vote for a mix of candidates across parties, while another 24% are unsure how they will vote. Only about one in seven of them currently plans to vote exclusively for one party.
Overall, the poll findings show that Texas voters are more willing to split their ballots. About half say they intend to vote exclusively for one party, with 26% planning to vote only for Republican candidates and 24% only for Democrats.
Just 34% of all voters said they were fully decided in November, while 37% were mostly decided and 21% were mostly or fully undecided.
The poll found that about two-thirds (68%) of voters say they are extremely or very concerned about Texas' future.
That is one of the highest percentages recorded by the Texas Voter Poll, which includes 85% of Democrats and 58% of Republicans — a 15-percentage-point increase among GOP voters from a year earlier.
"Even in a polarized political environment, this poll confirms something we hear from Texans in every part of the state: there is real common ground on the challenges that will define our future," said David Leebron, president and CEO of Texas 2036.
Voters also said they are less confident than they were six years ago that Texas is preparing successfully for the future, with 39% saying the state is taking the proper actions today to ensure Texas will be the best state in which to live, work and raise a family in 20 years. This year's number is down from 53% on a similar question in 2020.
Overall, the poll found that 57% of voters expect the Texas economy to outperform the rest of the country over the next four years. However, views differ considerably by party, with nearly 80% of Republicans expecting Texas to have a stronger economy than the nation over the next four years, compared with 32% of Democrats.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
