Here come the long marchers

The containers are back in town. Those needed to be contained are marching into the federal capital starting today. Or at least, attempting to. First, the Jamaat-e-Islami. Then come the Kissan Ittehad. And finally, with the sound of trumpets, the longest of long marchers – the PTI. It's a scene straight out of The Lord of the Rings trilogy. The High Court has spoken. No one shall be allowed to disrupt the lives of citizens, ordained the honourable judges. Music to the ears of the Interior Minister. Be warned long marchers, he declared at a presser. Then he explained – not that much explaining was necessary after the blunt warning – that the law enforcers would do their enforcing to enforce the court's orders. The minister knew that the marchers knew what this meant. No one is in the mood, it appears, to kid anyone. Which means a clash is inevitable if the marchers insist on making their march long enough to enter the capital. The PTI will not have to wait till September 27 to figure out what the government has in mind. The Jamaat and Kissan Ittehad will provide a full-dress rehearsal. Advantage PTI or government? Depends on your perspective. The capital's law enforcers have a new commander. He has also commandeered additional forces from the FC and Punjab Police. Word is that the Motorway Police has also been requisitioned (to challan the marchers if the tear gas doesn't work?). Armoured vehicles and water cannons are revved up and the battle gear is ready to be adorned. Like medieval warriors out for battle against the invading hordes (Vikings, The Last Kingdom for Netflix viewers), the enforcers of the writ of the state are said to be in a high state of readiness. Long March Season 2 (or Season 10 since PPP's first march in the early 1990s) Episode 1 uploads today on the roads leading to Islamabad. It's all the action you need (or don't, for that matter) ready for viewing, but not on your TV screens. Catch the proceedings live on your social media timelines, or if you're an adrenaline junkie, head to Chungee number 26. The Jamaat-e-Islami is not expected to fight pitched battles. There's already some negotiation underway with the government. So do not be surprised if some unsaid understanding is arrived at. This may entail the Jamaat undertaking the march till a certain point, indulging in some good old non-ferocious clashes with the law enforcers that produce engaging visuals, and then slowly declaring victory and walking off. No red lines crossed. No red zones breached. Everyone lives to march again – at a time of mutual convenience, of course. The Kissan Ittehad people might be a tad more unpredictable. More so, if they descend on the city while the Jamaat people are still hanging around. Such confluence could add a complicating factor to the situation. That said, it is fair to assume that the government is not inclined to unleash too much state power against these two groups. They consider them friendly opposition. A win-win optics is the preferred outcome, even though it may entail some fairly generous usage of tear gas and bamboo. Yet the Jamaat and Kissan Ittehad may serve as the opening act for the real attraction that opens next Sunday. KP chief minister, as the organiser-in-chief of PTI's long march, has been super busy in his organising activities but the swell of the non-KP PTI crowd has – to put it mildly – not been awe-inspiring. So, it may just transpire that like the previous time, PTI marchers will primarily comprise those coming from the province the party rules. But what's the end game? For the Jamaat, the core demand of abolishing the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) is a non-starter. That is not going to happen. What the government will do is perhaps add a few more incentives to the fuel subsidy scheme already announced and implemented. The Jamaat will declare this as its win. It would have reinforced its street mobilisation ability, charged up its politics (and visibility) and oxygenated its public relief oriented political agenda. A win-win for both the marchers and the enforcers. For the Kissan Ittehad, the core demands of wheat pricing and procurement have enough cushion for some non-binding commitments from the government. As it is, the government realises that wheat policies have not really delivered results and a rethink may already be underway. The Punjab government has taken the most flak. The federal enforcers may therefore offer some vague promises that can be dressed up as a win-win. Though of course, this will happen after the required optics involving tear gas and bamboo have been duly obtained. Protest leaders need these for their leadership validation. For the PTI – well for the PTI, hmmm – yes for them the core demands are, err, exactly what? Release Imran Khan? Not happening. Elections? Forget it. What else? Access to their leader? Perhaps. Medical treatment in Shifa for Khan? Maybe, at some point. In fact, that's the point: there's no win-win here in PTI's long march. This is the real challenge for the PTI leadership as it dives headlong into another outcome-devoid confrontation with the government. A week before the D-Day, the party continues to struggle with a clear narrative that cannot just contextualise the march to Islamabad, but also define what will constitute success. In addition, it has not exerted any real pressure on the government that might compel it to offer a win, howsoever small or inconsequential. Unless, of course, the sum total of the PTI's strategic objective is to create a sound and light show to convince its rank and file that the leadership is proactive and not just involved in internecine warfare. If that be the case, the party's leadership woes are graver than we imagine. Those leaders have a week to get their act together. The government though gets to flex its muscles from today. Here come the long marchers.