How Trump’s $15B Steel Project Could Save Ashley Hinson in Iowa - Newsweek

President Donald Trump is set to unveil a $15 billion steel mill in Iowa, in an effort to “rebuild American industry, reshore manufacturing, and create new jobs,” in a move that could help Republican Representative Ashley Hinson in the upcoming U.S. Senate race.

Trump is expected to reveal plans for the largest steel plant in American history to be built by Minnesota mining and metals company Mesabi ​Metallics from the Oval Office on Monday.

This could hand Hinson and her campaign a win against Democrat Josh Turek, who has recently seen momentum in some polls, despite Iowa traditionally being a Republican state.

Iowa has a long history of voting Republican, although it swung Democrat for five out of six elections between 1992 and 2012. In a dramatic shift, Trump won the state by more than 9 percent in 2016 and by 13 percent in 2024.

The state has long been a competitive swing state in non-federal state elections but it has increasingly moved Republicans over the last decade. In 2024, Republicans expanded their control of the House, flipping some Democrat seats, and preserved their control of the Senate. The last time Democrats won an Iowa Senate election was 18 years ago, when incumbent Senator Tom Harkin beat his Republican opponent, Christopher Reed.

But things may be different this year, with Iowa Democrats “hopeful that they can flip one or more of the offices,” as political science Professor Timothy M. Hagle, at the University of Iowa, told Newsweek.

Indeed, a summary of recent polls surveying Iowa voters shows that U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek and gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, both Democrats, have strong chances of winning their respective elections this November. Newsweek has reported on this in detail here.

Hagle is one of several political scientists who have pointed to signs of voter frustration with the administration, especially over the war in Iran.

“Trump supporters haven’t been happy about the effects of the Iran war but have been patient,” he said.

Hinson, who Trump previously endorsed as someone who would be “an outstanding Senator,” seemingly noticed this, breaking with Trump on the Iran war last week.

"We need to use every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices," she said in post on X last Monday before listing suggestions such as suspending the gas tax and pausing diesel exports.

"These actions to lower costs are needed ASAP, and the war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end," Hinson added.

The next day, she called for the House to "return to D.C. immediately to work to pause diesel exports, suspend the gas tax, fully unleash E15 and biodiesel, and work on a diesel relief program for truckers and farmers."

Other issues affecting Iowa voters include the economy, inflation, rising fuel costs and the Iran war, especially farmers, who have been hit especially hard by the current economic climate.

Hagle stressed that, despite this dissatisfaction, Democrats will have an “uphill effort given the voter registration advantage Republicans have.”

But it is “Iowa’s independents that will decide the races,” he said, adding: “They generally care less about the political stuff and care more about the ‘kitchen table’ issues.”

This is why a steel plant, which will create 5,000 to 6,000 temporary construction jobs, 1,750 new permanent jobs in the state, “support local communities, strengthen supply chains and protect our national security,” according to the White House, may help Hinson.

Trump’s plant will be the first mega-steel plant built in the U.S. since the 1960s, a White House official told Newsweek.

The project’s supply chain will be entirely domestic – “from iron mining through steel production” and will be “capable of supporting important defense sector requirements for high-grade steel.”

It follows Mesabi Metallics' roughly $2.5 billion investment in a mine and pellet plant in Minnesota, which the company has described as the first new iron ore mine in the U.S. in 50 years. A White House official said the mine would be ready for production by mid-September. Mining has since begun, and the company produced its first iron ore concentrate on September 17. However, it says pellet production is expected to start in October.

“President Trump is delivering on his promise to rebuild American industry, reshore manufacturing, and create new jobs. Today’s announcement underscores the President’s historic efforts to revitalize the U.S. steel industry,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told Newsweek.

“After decades of decline, this President is restoring America’s industrial competitiveness and securing trillions of dollars in new investment,” he added.

Polling aggregator RealClearPolling gives Turek a small 0.5 percent lead (45 percent) over Hinson (44.5 percent), based on polls it analyzed between August 31 and September 23.

This is similar to results from the first poll carried out on the day after Hinson’s post breaking with Trump on the Iran War last Monday. Insider Advantage found that 47 percent of the 1,200 likely voters surveyed September 22-23 supported Turek, while 46 percent backed Hinson. This is within the disclaimed margin of error - of +/-2.83 percentage points.

In the last few days, Turek has called into question the authenticity of Hinson's change on Iran, sharing a clip of her saying previously the war was "out of sight, out of mind." It comes after he previously pointed out that Hinson voted against bringing an immediate end to the war in Iran multiple times, including four times this year.

He has also posted campaign messages about healthcare, promising to "fight to address Iowa's cancer crisis" if he is elected to Senate and "ensure that every single Iowan, and every single American, has access to affordable and accessible healthcare."

Hinson repeated her promise to "work with anyone to deliver commonsense, bipartisan solutions" in an X post on Monday, a message her campaign has focused on.

She said her focus was on "lower gas and diesel prices for Iowans" and to "provide some immediate relief."

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes and Cristina Diciu.