Hurricane Polo tracker: Mexico landfall, forecast path and possible impacts on California and Arizona

Hurricane Polo is a powerful Category 5 storm in the eastern Pacific, off the southwestern coast of Mexico.

This handout satellite image obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/GOES shows Hurricane Polo over the Pacific Ocean near Mexico. (AFP)Polo began as a tropical depression on September 20 and strengthened into a tropical storm the following day. It then intensified at an extraordinary pace, with its winds increasing by about 110 mph in just 24 hours. By September 22, Polo had reached Category 5 strength.

According to Tuesday’s advisory from the US National Hurricane Center, Polo is the strongest eastern Pacific storm so far this year. Its maximum sustained winds have reached 165 mph (265 km/h) and could increase to 180 mph overnight.

Meteorologist Nick Arman of AccuWeather told Bloomberg, "It is the most intense one we have seen so far this year."

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said current forecasts show Polo remaining offshore, but she urged people along the Pacific coast to stay alert.

“At this point, it doesn’t look like it will make landfall; it will simply skirt the coast,” she said after her daily news conference. “People should remain on high alert.”

Polo is expected to move northwest and then west-northwest, roughly following the southwestern Mexican coastline while staying offshore.

The storm’s core is expected to remain close to the coast for the next few days before moving farther out to sea later in the week.

As of Tuesday morning, Polo was located about 345 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.

A tropical storm warning is in effect along parts of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, while a tropical storm watch has been extended westward to Playa Perula.

Polo is expected to bring heavy rain to parts of southwestern Mexico, particularly Guerrero and Michoacán, through Thursday.

Rainfall of around 3–8 inches is possible in some areas, with isolated totals reaching 8–12 inches.

Coastal areas of Oaxaca, Colima and Jalisco could also receive significant rain.

Heavy rainfall could cause dangerous flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.

Strong waves, large swells and dangerous rip currents are expected along parts of the southwestern coast.

Even if Polo remains offshore, strong winds, heavy rain and rough seas could affect coastal communities near the storm’s closest approach.

Authorities in some coastal areas have already begun preparations, including port closures, school suspensions and the opening of shelters.

Polo is not currently expected to make landfall in the United States or cause major direct impacts there. However, some indirect effects are possible, particularly along the Southwest and Southern California coast.

By the weekend, Polo could send large swells toward Southern California, leading to high surf and dangerous rip currents. Increased tropical moisture and humidity are also possible.

Some longer-range forecasts suggest that moisture from Polo could move north into the Southwest next week. If that happens, it could add to existing monsoon moisture and increase rainfall in parts of Arizona and New Mexico.

Texas could also see some indirect effects, although that remains a more distant possibility.

For now, Polo is expected to remain offshore, but residents along Mexico’s southwestern coast are being urged to closely monitor the storm as its path develops.

Vaishnavi Vaidyanathan leads the US Desk at Hindustan Times, where she writes, strategises coverage, and ensures quality across all beats. With eight years of experience covering US news for leading publications, she has reported extensively on politics, entertainment, and sports. Vaishnavi holds a graduate degree in English, Journalism, and Psychology, and completed her PG Diploma in Broadcast Journalism from the Manorama School of Communication, where she was awarded the prestigious Mammen Mappillai Award for Best Outgoing Student. She began her career at the International Business Times (US Edition), covering US breaking news, politics, and entertainment. She later joined Opoyi, reporting across all beats, including US sports and trending stories. Prior to Hindustan Times, she served as World Lead at Times Now News, covering comprehensive world news and events. Vaishnavi has expertise in politics, entertainment, and breaking news, and enjoys tackling stories across a wide range of topics. Beyond the newsroom, she is an avid traveller, a foodie who loves exploring new restaurants, and a pop culture enthusiast who enjoys watching latest shows and films. She also enjoys engaging in debates and discussions on Reddit.Read More