Hurricane Polo Tracker, Spaghetti Models as Storm To Make Landfall in Mexico - Newsweek

Hurricane Polo is expected to slam into Mexico this week, but forecasters warn the storm's reach could extend well beyond its landfall zone, with moisture from the system potentially fueling dangerous flooding across parts of the United States.

“Strong, destructive winds, storm surge and flooding rainfall are expected in Baja California Sur through Monday night,” AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek on Monday. “Flooding rain and gusty winds will also occur across Sonora, Chihuahua and northern Sinaloa Monday night into Tuesday.”

AccuWeather reported that the system’s wind speeds reached 180 miles per hour twice in the last week, a feat the forecaster described as “extremely rare.” Polo rapidly intensified from tropical storm status into a dangerous Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours, according to the forecaster.

DaSilva said the hurricane is expected to make landfall in Baja California Sur Monday evening before tracking through northwestern Mexico through early on Wednesday.

“Flooding rain and gusty winds will also occur across Sonora, Chihuahua and northern Sinaloa Monday night into Tuesday,” DaSilva said.

The meteorologist said Polo is expected to lose strength as it moves into northwestern Mexico, but moisture associated with the storm will spread into the southwestern and central U.S.

There, it is expected to combine with moisture from Odalys and a non-tropical weather system, increasing the risk of widespread flooding rainfall this week. DaSilva said the flooding could be “significant and life-threatening” in some areas, while parts of the Southwest could also see gusty winds. He added that some locations have already experienced heavy rainfall this month, leaving them vulnerable to flooding even from relatively small amounts of additional rain.

“The areas I'm most concerned about are New Mexico, Arizona and Texas, however dangerous, life-threatening flooding can extend all the way into the central Plains,” said DaSilva.

As of 8 a.m. MST on Monday, the NHC said Polo was around 85 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. It was moving northeast at 10 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, according to the agency.

The NHC forecasts Polo to move inland along the coast of Baja California Sur late Monday this evening, then move inland into southern Sonora Tuesday morning.

Portions of the Baja California Sur could see up to 12 inches of rain, with up to eight expected across southern and central regions of Sonora. “This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain,” the NHC warned.

“Polo is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches Baja California Sur this evening, and is anticipated to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland Mexico on Tuesday morning,” it added.

In the U.S., the National Weather Service has also issued flood watches covering New Mexico and most of Arizona, central and southern Utah, and portions of Colorado, Texas and Nevada.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale classes hurricanes from Category 1 to Category 5 based on their maximum sustained wind speed, according to NOAA.

Category 1 and 2 hurricanes have sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph and 96 to 110 mph, respectively. Category 3 hurricanes—when systems start to become classified as major hurricanes—have sustained winds of 111-129 mph.

Category 4 storms have winds of 130 to 156 mph, while Category 5 hurricanes have winds of 157 mph or higher.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Cristina Diciu.