ICE Raids May Cost U.S. Citizens Millions of Jobs, New Analysis Finds - Newsweek

President Donald Trump's 2024 election-winning policy around immigration could come back to bite him and the Republican Party this November, with a new report showing rising economic pressures on American citizens as more immigrants are detained and deported.

The report—from the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO)—comes just under two months out from an Election Day which is set to test the president's popularity amid rising grocery and gas costs and a slowdown in job creation.

According to the report, roughly 6 million jobs could be lost as a result of the White House's widespread crackdown on illegal immigrants, with U.S. workers likely to be adversely affected. Authors also suggested that price rises on products from lettuce to milk were, in part, linked to the loss of immigrant labor.

"Researchers now know that mass deportation reduces native employment, raises the price of food, housing, and eldercare, and ICE raids slash economic activity overall, which eliminates jobs for U.S. natives," Michael A. Clemens, an economist with a focus on immigration at Johns Hopkins University, told Newsweek. "These are not opinions but findings from quantitative analysis at high academic standards, with careful attention to distinguishing correlation and causation.

"Few people will be driven to the polls by today’s strawberry prices. But they might be driven to the polls by the growing evidence that our economic future is being eroded by the numb policy of enforcement-without-reform."

The report's authors called for new pathways to citizenship for immigrants who were contributing to the U.S. economy, arguing this would require Congress to act quickly.

Matt Wylie, a Republican strategist, told Newsweek Wednesday, that "Family budgets are being crushed by tariffs, reckless trade wars, and a war with Iran. The midterms will come down to who voters trust to lower grocery and gas prices. It seems that the ACLU and AFL-CIO are trying to hijack that anxiety for their own political agenda."

Lauren Bis, a White House spokesperson, told Newsweek Wednesday afternoon that the surge in illegal immigration between 2020 and 2024 also placed higher costs on Americans.

"The surge in illegal immigration under President Biden threatened the long run fiscal health of the country, contributed to record high inflation, and suppressed the wages of American workers," she said. "There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force, and President Trump’s agenda to create jobs for American workers represents this Administration’s commitment to capitalizing on that untapped potential while delivering on our mandate to enforce our immigration laws. President Trump will continue growing our economy and deliver rising wages for American workers.”

While supporters of Trump's tougher immigration enforcement have suggested deporting millions of immigrants without legal status would mean American-born workers being able to access their jobs, the AFL-CIO and ACLU argue that the long-term impact may be the opposite.

The report says this could be the case because immigrants and U.S.-born workers often work in interconnected industries and supply chains, so when businesses lose workers due to a loss of work permits or deportation, employers may then reduce operations, delay projects, or scale back hiring.

"Roughly one in five workers in our country is an immigrant, spanning all sectors of the economy," the report reads. "Targeting this large and vital segment of the workforce sharply reduces the supply of labor, threatening the ability of employers to generate revenue and cover business expenses, including the wages of any remaining workers."

Authors of the report also point to other research which suggested that increased immigration enforcement was linked to declines in overall employment rates. They argued that the effect is particularly pronounced in industries such as construction and caregiving.

Similar warnings came before the 2024 presidential election, with experts repeatedly arguing that the data did not match claims that Americans had been pushed out of roles because of immigration and that losing immigrant workers would have a ripple effect on costs.

The report also links higher prices to immigration enforcement, citing research including a July 2026 paper from Economic Insights and Research Consulting, which made that link, in part based on Consumer Price Index data.

In that report, it is suggested that prices for various products rose at a faster overall rate than overall inflation because of their ties to immigrant labor, including lettuce prices rising 32.1 percent, fresh milk by 9 percent, home health costs up by 10.7 percent, and landscaping services climbing 10.8 percent in the 12 months ending June 2026.

The ACLU and AFL-CIO wrote that labor shortages caused by immigration enforcement meant increased costs for employers were being passed to the consumer.

"Working people are paying the price for an immigration system that is destabilizing entire industries and communities and making it easier to exploit workers," AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler said in a press release. "Working people know that it’s not an immigrant that stands between them and a good job—it’s the billionaires—and it’s time our laws reflect that."

Much of the report focuses on what it describes as the broader economic effects of Trump's immigration policies, including sweeping raids.

The report argues that the heightened enforcement efforts seen all around the U.S. had created an "economy of fear" that meant workers were staying home, consumers were cutting spending, and businesses were losing customers.

Research released by the University of Pennsylvania in May estimated that ICE raids would lead to 8.1 billion fewer visits for American businesses, meaning losses of between $3 and $14 billion per year.

Pointing to those estimates, the ACLU report authors argued that the effects extend beyond immigrant households, affecting the local and national economies through a loss in tax revenue.

Another area the report focuses on is housing—something which has also become a key issue for Americans in recent years as construction remains patchy and rental costs have risen.

The report estimates that nearly 20 percent of the construction workforce in the U.S. could be affected by deportation policies, potentially leading to the loss of 1.4 million construction jobs overall—860,000 held by U.S.-born workers.

Citing previous research, the authors said immigration enforcement had been linked to nearly 2,000 fewer homes being completed each year in each state, as well as an 18 percent rise in house prices.

For Republican incumbents and candidates, there is likely growing pressure for them to act on voter worries, even as the president has sought to distance himself from the affordability issue, including a recent claim that the higher costs are still the fault of his predecessor, President Joe Biden, who left office 19 months ago.

The report's findings do point to key issues concerning voters ahead of the election this November, including housing and the size of their grocery bill. For Clemens, it is unclear if voters will link these issues with immigration just yet, because the number of immigrant workers seized so far was small.

"These effects will grow like a snowball, and will get a bit larger every month that mass deportation continues. The effects will start to be visible in the sectors where immigrants make the biggest direct contribution: food production and preparation, care work, construction, hospitality," Clemens said.

The ACLU and AFL-CIO argue in the report that the current administration and Congress, which is currently led by the GOP, need to create easier U.S. citizenship pathways to help secure the economy, estimating that the country's GDP could increase by nearly $2 trillion over a decade, while wages could also be raised.

"There's a way out of this: creating a pathway to citizenship for workers would yield massive economic benefits, including the creation of hundreds of thousands of new jobs, lifting wages for all and improving working conditions," Naureen Shah, Director of Government Affairs with the ACLU's Equality Division, told Newsweek in a statement.

Whether this alternative angle on the impact of immigration enforcement resonates with voters and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle remains to be seen, with new immigration law notoriously difficult to pass.

"The alternative is not anarchy and abrogation of U.S. immigration law, but reform of U.S. immigration law to reflect the needs of our aging population and rapidly changing technology," Clemens said.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Samantha Beech and Gray R. Thomas