Madurantakam bypolls: PMK’s abstention adds to changing electoral equations

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With the PMK, a constituent of the AIADMK-led alliance, deciding not to support any party in the upcoming bypolls, it would be pertinent to take a look at how this could change equations in Madurantakam (SC) constituency, in Chengalpattu district, where the party has a notable influence. In the April 2026 elections, AIADMK candidate Maragatham Kumaravel, who was backed by the PMK, had emerged victorious in what turned out to be a tightly fought three-way contest.

However, within three weeks of her election, she had resigned her Assembly membership and joined the ruling TVK. The party has now fielded her in the bypoll. Against this backdrop, for the purpose of analysis, one needs to look at the data from the Assembly elections of 2021 and 2026 — in which Ms. Kumaravel had won with the PMK’s support, and the 2024 Lok Sabha poll in Kancheepuram (under which the Madurantakam Assembly segment falls), as at that time the PMK was not part of the AIADMK-led alliance.

In terms of voter turnout, Madurantakam has consistently been among the better-performing Assembly segments in the State. In 2026, it recorded a turnout of 93.36%, placing it among the constituencies with the highest turnout in Tamil Nadu.

The impact of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls on the size of the electorate was relatively limited in Madurantakam, with the electorate declining only marginally, whereas the number of voters increased significantly in 2026 compared with the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

The AIADMK-led alliance’s vote share in Madurantakam fell from 46.62% in 2021 to 37.06% in 2024, a decline of 9.56 percentage points. In the 2024 election, the PMK, as a constituent of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), polled 9.57% of the votes in this Assembly segment. The figures indicate a close correspondence between the decline in the AIADMK combine’s vote share in percentage points and the PMK’s standalone vote share in 2024.

Among other factors, this change in alliance composition led to the Madurantakam Assembly segment moving to the DMK-led alliance in the 2024 election, with the latter taking a 6.79 percentage point lead over the AIADMK-led combine.

In 2026, the PMK and certain other NDA constituents returned to the AIADMK front. However, the AIADMK combine’s vote share did not witness a corresponding increase due to the debut of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which significantly altered the electoral equation. Though the AIADMK combine won with 34.95%, its vote share further decreased.

However, the DMK-led front suffered a more substantial dent in its vote share due to the TVK’s entry. The new entrant polled 31.32%, pushing the DMK-led alliance to third place with 30.18% of the votes, a substantial reduction from 44.7% in 2021 and 43.85% in 2024, even as the alliance configuration of the DMK remained more or less intact in these elections.

Now, retaining Madurantakam is a key objective for the AIADMK. The party is mounting a strong campaign citing the defection of Ms. Kumaravel and a few others to TVK as “horse trading.” It has fielded Kanitha Sampath, who was elected to the Assembly in 2001 from Thiruporur and in 2011 from Madurantakam.

For TVK, the by-election is a test of the popularity of Chief Minister C. Joseph Vijay-led government’s four months in office. The party, which is heading a post-poll coalition, is also looking to increase its own strength of 107 seats in the Assembly.

The DMK, which lost power, has been left without the Congress, IUML, VCK, and the MDMK, which joined the TVK-led front. It is approaching the bypoll looking for a victory as an opportunity to bring renewed momentum to the party. It has fielded former Egmore MLA I. Paranthamen, while the combined Left front has named P. Suganthi of the CPI(M), who is general secretary of the Tamil Nadu Untouchability Eradication Front. Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi has fielded Janakiraman, making it a five-cornered contest.

Interestingly, only nine candidates contested the 2026 election, whereas 27 candidates are now in the fray.

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