Map Shows Governor Races That May Flip for Democrats Month Before Midterm - Newsweek

The race to gain the majority of governorships across the country just shifted a bit in Democrats' favor as The Cook Political Report moved both Texas and Florida's races toward the party.

Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them. Republicans hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.

Republicans have also controlled a majority of governorships for roughly two decades, not including a four-year Democratic stint from roughly 2007 to 2011. There are 36 top state seats on the ballot in November's election, of which the parties currently hold 18 apiece.

Democrats are hoping to capitalize on President Donald Trump's dropping approval ratings in state and national polls as the midterm elections are less than five weeks away. The president's overall approval and ranking on key policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have slipped as households across America are flagging affordability concerns.

Cook says in part that "Democrats could make gains across the country in critical states this November, potentially giving them a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010."

Cook says that the party is seriously battling to flip Alaska, Ohio, Nevada and Georgia. Polling is neck and neck in the Georgia race, as Republican Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited. Recent polls show Republican Rick Jackson with a one- or two-point advantage over Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, where earlier polling in the summer showed Bottoms ahead. The Peach State has not elected a Democratic governor in more than two decades.

In Ohio, Democrat Dr. Amy Acton is leading in a majority of new polls versus Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Prediction market site Kalshi also shows Acton with a 20 percent advantage over Ramaswamy to win the seat.

In Alaska, Governor Mike Dunleavy is term-limited and recent polls favor Democrats. The state uses a jungle primary system that requires voters to rank the four candidates by preference in the upcoming general election, which includes two Democrats and two Republicans. Trump won the state in the 2024 presidential election.

Nevada's governor seat is held by Republican Joe Lombardo, seeking to maintain his office against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. An Emerson College Polling/KLAS-TV survey conducted last month showed Ford narrowly ahead, but before that, Lombardo led in a majority of surveys. Kalshi puts Lombardo ahead of Ford by 6 percent on Thursday evening.

Cook labels Iowa as the race "on the verge" of flipping for the Democrats. Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is not seeking reelection in the Hawkeye State and Democrat Rob Sand is leading Republican Zach Lahn in nearly every recent poll. Trump has won the state in the last three presidential elections, and Cook has the race rated as Lean Democrat.

In Thursday's ratings shift, both Texas and Florida have moved toward the Democrats in their respective high-profile races.

In Florida, Republican Congressman Byron Donalds is vying to keep the state red and has the backing of Trump and Governor Ron DeSantis. Democrats are hoping Democrat David Jolly can pull off an upset in the Sunshine State amid the GOP cash advantage and large Republican voter registration lead.

Recent polling shows a close race, as Jolly, a former Republican, was ahead or tied in some surveys. Recently, Donalds removed several references to Trump from his campaign website, but his team said the angle of reporting was "fake news."

Craig Agranoff, political professor at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek on Thursday, "The move from likely republican to lean republican is notable, but it is not a shock. Cook already took Florida off the solid map in August, and the national climate has not improved for the party in power. Lean still means Republicans are favored. Donalds has the money, the Trump endorsement, and a state Trump carried by double digits. Jolly’s path is through independents and soft republicans, not a blue wave by itself."

Agranoff added, "The larger point is real. Cook is right that dems have a better shot at a majority of governorships than they have had since 2010, mostly because open seats in places like Iowa and Ohio are in play. Florida is part of that map now. It is not the center of it. A lean republican rating is a warning for republicans, not a forecast that the state flips."

In Texas, Republican Governor Greg Abbott also has a notable cash advantage over Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa, but polls show a potential warning sign.

Numerous surveys have indicated a close race between Abbott and Hinojosa, with a couple showing her ahead. Cook says that Senate Republican candidate Ken Paxton could be a drag on the GOP ticket in the Lone Star State amid recent controversies and a public divorce, and that Hinojosa may have a "unique opportunity."

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins