NFL picks: Who the experts predict to win in the Broncos-Chiefs game

The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs meet in one of Week 1's biggest games. It's also one of the most difficult to predict.

Both teams will be looking to get their season started on the right foot with a key divisional win. Each team has very different motivations, as the Broncos are looking to silence many doubters despite going 14-3 last season, while the Chiefs are looking to get back to their winning ways following an uncharacteristically bad 2025 season.

How do the NFL experts see this one going? Let's take a look.

"This will be Patrick Mahomes in his first start since tearing his ACL. How limited will he be?" Prisco wrote for CBS. "It won't help he's facing one of the best defenses in the league. The Chiefs will counter with a young defense that will try and slow down a good Denver offense. At home, I think they do it. Mahomes wins it late."

"Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is back from a torn ACL – and it's a tough matchup against Denver – which led the NFL with 68 sacks last season," wrote Bender for The Sporting News. "The return of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and the addition of running back Kenneth Walker III should help – and Denver is 4-2 S/U against the Chiefs under Sean Payton. This is a tricky Monday Night Football pick."

Bleacher Report has five of their 7 analysts picking the Broncos in this game.

"Winning as the road team in Kansas City is tough, but defense travels, and the Broncos have one of the best in the business," wrote Knox for Bleacher Report. "Beyond that, I think it's going to take a few games for Patrick Mahomes to find his groove with whatever post-injury playing style he brings to the 2026 season.

The Chiefs will go as Mahomes does, and one or two instances of him hesitating behind the line will sink them against arguably the most well-rounded team in the conference."

Experts at USA TODAY favored the Broncos 2-1 in this game, at least against the spread.

"I believe the Chiefs will make the playoffs. I believe the Broncos will not. I also believe none of that matters in Week 1," Adam Kaufman wrote for USA TODAY.

"We haven't seen Patrick Mahomes since he suffered a season-ending knee injury, and now he has to deal with an imposing Vance Joseph defense that has historically made life very difficult for the future Hall of Famer. Adding Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III will help, but if Mahomes' mobility isn't what it usually is, it could be a long night at Arrowhead. That's enough reason to take the points."

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