Packers vs. Falcons preview and predictions: Can Green Bay win home opener? - Packers Wire

The Green Bay Packers have a chance to get to 2-1 after three weeks when the Atlanta Falcons come to Lambeau Field for "Thursday Night Football" to open Week 3. Neither the Packers nor the Falcons are playing a particularly attractive brand of football to start 2026. The Packers had to come back from 10 down against the Jets to avoid an 0-2 start, while the Falcons are winless after getting blown out 34-3 in Week 2. Needless to say, both teams will feel a level of desperation to play a lot better on a short week. Can Matt LaFleur's team take a step in the right direction during the home opener?

Zach: With the defense consistently creating disruptive plays and the special teams actually contributing impact plays, all eyes turn to the inconsistent and struggling offense -- a group that really isn't doing anything well at this point in the season. So many questions to answer. Can the Packers run the football better to take some pressure off Jordan Love? Can the offensive line give Love fewer free runners and more clean pockets? Can pass-catchers eliminate the drops and win after the catch in the quick passing game? It's difficult to establish an identity with so much inconsistency along the offensive line because everything in football is centered around getting guys blocked. The Packers have flashy toys on offense, but the big guys up front have to start getting the job done. Until further notice, the offensive line is the only thing worth watching.

Mark: Can Jordan Love settle down? He was under constant duress in Week 1 against the Vikings, and although the Jets did not get anywhere near as much pressure, it seemed Love had been spooked by what happened in the opener and his performance was impacted. The first thing to watch is whether a Packers offensive line without Zach Bako-Bewele or Aaron Banks can give Love sufficient protection as they did last week, and if that happens, does Green Bay’s quarterback plays more under control and get back on track?

Zach: Michael Penix Jr. will be taking his first snaps since Nov. 16 of last year on Thursday night, and he will face a Packers defense that is flying around and creating a bunch of negative plays. The Falcons were simply dreadful in the passing game during the first two games, which is to be expected with Cooper Rush and rookie Jack Strand unexpectedly taking all the snaps. But this still looks like a matchup that favors the Packers. Penix will likely be knocking off the rust, and the Packers are playing well at every level of the defense. The worry here is that the Falcons are not short on playmakers, and Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts could really come to life with a capable quarterback under center. With their own offense still finding its way, the Packers need another dominant performance defensively on Thursday night.

Mark: The Packers defense has been the most encouraging side of the ball through two weeks, and although the Falcons will have Michael Penix returning at quarterback, which should give them a significant upgrade on fill-ins Cooper Rush and Jack Strand, the third-year QB is coming off a disappointing 2025 season which ended with a torn ACL. With the crowd on Green Bay’s side in their first game of the season at Lambeau Field, there is a good chance Jonathan Gannon’s defense can continue its early success and make life difficult for Penix and company.

Zach: The Packers rank dead last in the NFL in six different stats, including pass block win rate, rushing yards, completion percentage and third down conversion percentage. Most of these tie back to the ineffectiveness of the offensive line. The Falcons don't appear to have a dominant defensive front, but it's been effective through the first two games, producing pressure on over 40 percent of dropbacks and holding opponents to 2.9 yards per run, and Za'Darius Smith and Gervon Dexter can cause problems. It's hard to imagine a consistent offense blossoming out of thin air if the Packers don't get settled along the offensive line, and the starting five will be missing Aaron Banks and Zach Bako-Bewele on Thursday night. Another big test awaits.

Mark: The Packers’ run game has been about as bad as anyone could have imagined without Josh Jacobs, and not just because of a milquetoast offensive line. Both MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks rank right at the bottom of the league in rushing yards over expected, and perhaps it is time for a bigger dose of Kaleb Johnson, who did fumble last week but also had some nice runs. As long as Green Bay cannot run the ball when opponents know it is coming, they will find it difficult to control games on offense, especially on Thursday night against an Atlanta defense which has stopped the run extremely well In the first two games.

Zach: The Packers interior against Gervon Dexter, the former Bear. The Packers should be familiar with Dexter, but that doesn't change the fact that he can be a game-wrecker when he's on. Dexter, who wears No. 95 with the Falcons, has been disruptive as an interior pass-rusher to start 2026. Can Sean Rhyan, Jacob Monk and/or Donovan Jennings and Jager burton keep Dexter from taking over? It'll be a long night at the office for the offense if Dexter and Za'Darius Smith are living in the backfield.

Mark: Javon Bullard has picked up where he left off from last season and is playing exceptional football from the slot. He will face a test in coverage this week, as Drake London and Kyle Pitts line up in the slot on roughly a third of their snaps. London is almost 6-4 and Pitts is well over 6-5, giving them a significant size advantage over Bullard, who is under 5-11. Can Green Bay’s tenacious slot defender punch above his weight on Thursday night and keep Atlanta’s talented pass-catching duo at bay?

Zach: They clean up the penalties and don't make any major mistakes on offense. It's possible playing at home will settle some of the pre-snap focus and concentration issues. Commit fewer penalties and the offense has a chance to play on schedule. Play on schedule and the offense will be in fewer obvious passing downs on third-and-long, which is always the most dangerous down in terms of making a mistake. Given how well the defense and special teams are playing to start the season, the Packers offense just needs to take advantage of good opportunities and not put the defense in bad spots. Fewer penalties, no giveaways, and I think the Packers win.

Mark: They contain Bijan Robinson. Slowing an elite running back such as Robinson down will not be easy, but Gannon has done a pretty good job of limiting Robinson’s rushing yards in two previous meetings. He is also a serious receiving threat out of the backfield, and some of the Falcons’ best offensive plays this season have come from dumping the ball to Robinson in space. Green Bay’s tackling will need to be sound if they are to prevent Atlanta’s biggest threat from ripping off explosive plays. Limiting Robinson’s impact and making Penix try to win the game should be a recipe for success for the Packers.

Zach: The Falcons are not a heavy blitz team, sending extra pressure on just 19.5 percent of opponent dropbacks this season. That doesn't mean the Falcons haven't been effective affecting the pass, but Jeff Ulbrich's defense does it a different way than, say, the madman Brian Flores. Assuming the Falcons stick to their preferred method of pass-rushing, the Packers offensive line has a real chance to show they can win 1-on-1 blocks without the chaos of crowd noise or unrelenting blitzes. The concern level will go up a few ticks if the Packers are consistently getting beat by a 4-man rush on Thursday night.

Mark: Is this the week for a big Tucker Kraft game? He ranks second among 42 qualified tight ends in yards per route run going back to the start of last season compared to only 20th against zone. Jeff Ulbrich’s Falcons defense led the league in single-high usage last season and is fourth so far in 2026. On the flipside, a more aggressive style of coverage looks like the best way to challenge Penix and the Atlanta offense, as the quarterback ranked dead last in success rate against man out of 48 qualifiers between 2024 and 2025. Does Gannon trust his defensive backs to hold up?

Zach: On a scale of 1-10, my confidence level in a Packers victory is not high, maybe a 5 or 6. If the Falcons had any kind of pulse, this would feel like a true toss up game given the state of the offensive line, and how so much of what has ailed the Packers is centered on the offensive line's play through two weeks. That said, if there's a more troubled offensive team entering Week 3, it's the Falcons, who are returning their quarterback but still have massive problems. Overall, the Packers defense has been a real strength, so even if Green Bay's offense struggles to sustain drives once again, I think a takeaway or two will probably swing the game in the right direction. Winning ugly might just be the way forward until the rebuilt offensive line settles in. Defense. Special teams. Don't mess it up on offense. That should be the plan for Thursday night. Packers 20, Falcons 16

Mark: The home opener should provide a friendlier environment for Green Bay’s offense to hopefully find some kind of rhythm, but missing Zach Bako-Bewele and Aaron Banks will not help the already worrisome O-line, and the Falcons have been generating pressure at a high rate, even if it has been more of the slow burn variety. Even on a short week and without tow starting O-linemen and Jayden Reed, I’m backing them to put up more points this time around, as well as Jonathan Gannon continuing to tweak his defense to hold Michael Penix and the Atlanta offense in check. The Packers need a ‘get right’ game, and Thursday night presents a big opportunity. Packers 27, Falcons 17