Peggy Flanagan’s Chances of Losing to Michele Tafoya in Minnesota: Polls - Newsweek

Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan holds a narrow lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll, though her advantage falls within the survey's margin of error, highlighting a competitive contest less than two months before Election Day on November 3.

The poll comes as Democrats eye a narrow path to reclaiming control of Congress' upper chamber, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. To take back the majority, Democrats must defend their current seats—including in two states President Donald Trump won in his 2024 White House bid—and flip four others.

Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party historically loses seats.

The Cook Political Report currently rates the Minnesota Senate race as likely Democrat.

Christine Snell, Tafoya's campaign manager, told Newsweek in a Friday email: “This race is already a dead heat, and the more that Minnesotans remember that career politician Peggy Flanagan oversaw massive fraud and failure in her eight years as Lieutenant Governor, the worse her numbers will get.

"Minnesotans are ready to fire the career politicians who failed us and send an independent-minded outsider to the Senate."

Newsweek has reached out to the Flanagan's campaign for comment via email on Friday.

Flanagan and Tafoya are vying for the seat held by Democrat Tina Smith, who is retiring. Minnesota last elected a Republican senator in 2002, backing Norm Coleman. In 2008, he lost reelection to Democrat Al Franken.

Flanagan defeated Representative Angie Craig in the primary in August in a victory for the Democratic Party’s more progressive wing, which has seen several candidates prevail in recent primaries. Flanagan received backing from independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar, making the race another example of the ongoing divide between progressive and moderate Democrats.

Tafoya, a former longtime NFL sideline reporter, won the Republican nomination and is seeking to turn her name recognition and political outsider profile into a victory. The race has drawn national attention as Republicans look to make gains in Minnesota, even though Democrats have maintained a strong statewide advantage in recent elections.

Cook Political Report shifted the race from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat in August. Vice President Kamala Harris, whose running mate was Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, won the state by roughly 4 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election over President Donald Trump. In 2016, Minnesota backed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by less than 2 percentage points against Trump. President Barack Obama did better in the state, carrying it by nearly 8 points in 2012 and more than 10 points in 2008.

The North Star State became the epicenter of the Trump administration’s ramped-up immigration enforcement earlier this year. Two American citizens, Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti, were fatally shot by federal immigration officers in January amid protests in Minneapolis, fueling anger over the White House's hardline approach to immigration, border security and Operation Metro Surge.

The state has also been in the national spotlight in recent months over fraud investigations.

A new Quantus Insights poll found Flanagan leading the race, 48.2 percent to Tafoya’s 44.4 percent. About 88.6 percent of participants said they are “definitely decided” about their vote, while 7.5 percent said they could be open to changing their mind.

Women favored Flanagan by a 14-point margin, 54 percent to 40 percent, while men backed Tafoya by 8 points, 50 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll.

The poll revealed a clear age divide. Flanagan led among voters under 45, winning support from 62 percent of those ages 18 to 29 compared with 28 percent for Tafoya, and from 63 percent of voters ages 30 to 44 compared with 34 percent for the Republican. Tafoya, meanwhile, led among older voters, 54 percent to 38 percent among those ages 45 to 64 and 47 percent to 44 percent among voters 65 and older.

The poll found Flanagan with a 50 percent favorable rating and a 46 percent unfavorable rating. Tafoya was viewed favorably by 42.4 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 42 percent.

The poll of 720 likely voters was conducted September 8-10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

The limited public polling conducted since the primary has generally shown Flanagan ahead of Tafoya, though some surveys have found a race that remains within the margin of error.

A recent TIPP/League of American Workers poll, conducted August 31-September 2 among 1,201 likely voters, found Flanagan holding a narrow lead, 44 percent to 42 percent. It also found 6 percent supporting other candidates, while 8 percent were not sure.

According to the poll, Flanagan had more of the Gen Z, millennial, female, Black and Hispanic vote. Tafoya has more support from those aged 45 and older, as well as men and white likely voters. Both have 37 percent of the independent vote. The poll had a margin of error of 3 percent. The League of American Workers is not formally affiliated with the Republican Party, but it is a conservative advocacy organization led by former Trump adviser Steve Cortes.

An August KSTP/SurveyUSA poll of 661 likely adults found Flanagan leading 46 percent to 41 percent, with about 11 percent undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey, which did not poll specific candidates, found that Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot in the Senate race, 49 percent to 41 percent. It was sponsored by KARE-TV, the Minnesota Star Tribune and the University of Minnesota Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communications, surveying 800 likely voters June 8-10.

Prediction markets have Flanagan as the clear favorite to win the seat. According to Kalshi on Friday, Flanagan has a 90.3 percent chance of winning to Tafoya's 9.7 percent chance. Polymarket showed a similar finding on Friday afternoon, with Flanagan having a 92 percent chance to Tafoya's 9 percent.

Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats and hold all of their own to take control of the chamber, which Republicans currently control 53-47. Democrats argue that voter concerns about the economy, Trump's declining approval ratings and the war with Iran could create openings in several competitive state races. Despite Democratic optimism, Republicans contend that they will maintain their Senate majority and retain control of Congress.

Nationally, 35 percent of voters approve of Trump's job performance while 59 percent disapprove as of Friday, leaving him underwater with a net approval rating of -24, according to Civiqs' rolling online tracking poll of registered voters. As of Wednesday, the survey had garnered around 129,000 responses since January 20, 2025, when Trump was inaugurated for a second term.

Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin’s averages show Democrats leading in four races for GOP-held Senate seats, putting the party within reach of the four it needs, but with little room for error. Its latest updated averages show Democrats ahead in Alaska, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. Republicans lead in Florida, Iowa and Kansas.

The most competitive races in seats Democrats currently hold are in Georgia and Michigan, both of which narrowly backed Trump in the 2024 presidential election but backed President Joe Biden in 2020. Democrats view GOP-held seats in Maine, which backed former Harris by 7 points, and North Carolina, which backed Trump by 3 points, as their top flip opportunities.

Prediction markets remain divided on which party will control the Senate after the midterms. As of Friday, Kalshi gave Republicans a 53 percent chance of winning control of the chamber, while Polymarket slightly favored Democrats, giving them a 53 percent chance of securing a Senate majority.Minnesota's in-person early voting period begins on October 16.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Dave Siminoff.