Possible Tropical Storm Brews in Atlantic as El Niño Keeps Hurricanes Away - Newsweek

Chances have increased that an Atlantic Ocean disturbance east of the United States could form into a tropical storm in the next seven days, according to the most recent update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued on Monday.

The forecast comes as the Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally quiet. The basin has still not produced a hurricane so far this year. The Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1 and runs through November 30. In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a below-average season for the Atlantic basin, with eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes. So far, five tropical storms have formed, with the most recent being Tropical Storm Edouard, which formed on August 31.

A big contributing factor to the slow season has been the formation of El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle which causes above-average sea temperatures and weakened trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Forecasts anticipate El Niño will continue strengthening through the end of the year, with a greater than 90 percent chance it will become "very strong" in the fall and winter months.

Although El Niño's impacts in the U.S. are most strongly felt during the colder months, the climate pattern can impact both the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. In the Atlantic basin, most tropical storms and hurricanes typically occur between mid-August and October. However, El Niño can lessen activity in the Atlantic basin by increasing wind shear, which can destroy storm systems before they have a chance to strengthen. In the Pacific, El Niño can contribute to more storms, because of warmer water temperatures and reduced wind shear.

And although El Niño has likely contributed to the quiet Atlantic season so far, that pattern could be ending as NHC meteorologists track a new disturbance near Bermuda that has a chance at forming into a tropical storm within the next week. Newsweek reached out to the NHC by email on Monday for comment.

The next tropical storm that forms in the Atlantic will be named Fay. According to the most recent NHC forecast, the disturbance currently being tracked by meteorologists has a 40 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical storm within the next seven days.

As of Monday afternoon, the area of concern was located 1,000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda and was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A map included with the forecast showed the area of disturbance moving west, toward the U.S. East Coast.

"Environmental conditions over the system are forecast to become more conducive for development by the middle ofthis week," the NHC said. "A tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves slowly off to the west-northwest over the subtropical Atlantic."

AccuWeather meteorologists also pegged the disturbance with a medium chance of development, and an AccuWeather report predicted a storm could form between September 17 and 21.

"This swirl is associated with a storm in the middle layer of the atmosphere," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in the report. "Sometimes storms like this spin down to the surface, and if conditions allow, they can evolve into a tropical or subtropical storm."

Although wind shear remains widespread across the Atlantic basin, it is lower near Bermuda, where the disturbance is currently located. This means that wind shear might not be able to disrupt the storm before it forms.

Last year's Atlantic hurricane season was also below normal, with 13 named storms forming throughout the entire season, including one hurricane and four major hurricanes.

At this time last year, six named storms had already formed, including Erin, which became a major hurricane.

An average Atlantic hurricane season sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Three of the five named storms have formed in the Gulf of America, bringing rain and wind impacts to Gulf states.

As of Monday afternoon, there are no tropical storm watches or warnings in effect. The NHC will continue monitoring the disturbance and issue further updates as it develops.

Despite the below-average forecast for this year's hurricane season, federal and independent forecasters have warned that it only takes one storm to have a devastating impact. People living in hurricane prone areas are encouraged to monitor local weather forecasts and be prepared to act should a storm form.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Samantha Beech and Geoffrey Rowland.