Republicans Face Midterms Disaster—What Polling Reveals - Newsweek

With exactly one month until Election Day, Republicans are confronting what appears to be an increasingly precarious political map, as polling and election forecasters show Democratic candidates competitive or ahead in several races that could determine control of both chambers of Congress.

Democrats are hoping polling surges and low approval ratings for President Donald Trump help them ride a massive blue wave into the majority in both the House and the Senate. Republicans hope the president hitting the campaign trail can boost turnout among their base and stave off Democratic gains.

Voters head to the polls on November 3, with every House seat and 35 Senate contests on the ballot. Democrats need to pick up four seats each in both the House and the Senate to gain control of the chambers. Political forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have shifted numerous races toward Democrats, and though many contests remain within tight and within polling margins of error, the emerging picture raises the prospect of substantial Republican losses.

The generic ballot—which assesses how a typical politician would fare in a race based just on party—puts Democrats ahead by over eight points, according to RealClearPolitics' polling average.

In the 2018 midterms during Trump's first term in office, Democrats rode a blue wave to a net gain of 41 seats in the House, but they were not able to sustain that momentum against a difficult Senate map, ultimately seeing the GOP expand its majority from 51 seats to 53.

The map appeared similar in 2026, with only two Republican seats being defended in states that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris won in 2024, but the battleground has expanded to longtime GOP strongholds amid voters' dissatisfaction with the economy, inflation and the Iran war.

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A polling snapshot from Election Central, updated September 28, showed Democrats leading in six Republican-held Senate contests—Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. And four major election forecasters—FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket, and VoteHub—predict that all five of those races (taking out Iowa) favor Democrats.

Despite the GOP currently holding North Carolina, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper has taken such a commanding lead over his opponent, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, that NBC reports that the GOP's top Senate super PAC has paused spending in the race.

If each party won every other seat they are expected to hold, victories in those six races would put Democrats above the four-seat gain needed for Senate control. These figures are a snapshot, however, and not a forecast. Several of the margins were narrow.

Newsweek contacted the National Republican Senatorial Committee for comment on the midterms and was directed to reporting by CNN noting that polling of MAGA Republicans indicates high enthusiasm for the election. Additionally, the NRSC pointed to analysis by conservative pollster Patrick Ruffini showing that Senate polling from 2018–2024 overstated Democratic turnout in Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan

“Democrats should think twice before relying too heavily on the same rosy polling that has historically written Republicans off cycle after cycle," NRSC National press secretary Bernadette Breslin said in prior statements. “To the doomsdayers and prognosticators out there, the GOP base is poised to show up at the polls in full force this November."

Polling has shown Democrats with momentum and it has driven donor dollars. In Alaska, former Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola has raised over $18.5 million in her challenge against incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan. Currently, the RealClearPolitics' polling average gives her a one-and-a-half-point lead over Sullivan. Similarly, in Iowa—a state that has not voted Democratic at the presidential level since 2012 and has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008—Democratic State Representative Josh Turek holds a half-point lead over Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson despite her lead in fundraising, $10.2 million to $6.3 million

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The Senate race in Texas has become especially problematic for the GOP. Marist put Democratic state Representative James Talarico six points ahead of the state’s Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton on September 23, although a Republican-aligned Pulse Decision Science poll later showed Paxton leading by three.

Democrats were last competitive in Texas back in 2018 amidst the candidacy of former Congressman Beto O'Rourke. However, O'Rourke led in a few polls during that time, while Talarico leads in most. The turnaround of Texas has long been talked about by Democrats and they say they have created a statewide campaign infrastructure that was not there before.

"The [party] resources were almost nothing,” O’Rourke told Newsweek. “We just had to do that all from scratch.”

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In Ohio, Marist found Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown leading incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted 51 percent to 43 percent. Elected to the Senate in 2007, Brown served the state for 18 years until he lost to Republican challenger Bernie Moreno in 2024. The seat he's running for this cycle was the one Husted was appointed to fill for Vice President JD Vance. Brown still holds superior name recognition, and The New York Times reported that some voters believe he is still the incumbent. Husted also must contend with the voters' turn on data centers, something he once celebrated as bringing jobs to Ohio.

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The Maine Senate race remains very close.

Late-September polling ranged from GOP Senator Susan Collins leading former Democratic State Senator Troy Jackson by three points to Jackson leading by four or five. Jackson became the nominee after controversial candidate Graham Platner dropped out amid sexual assault allegations. Collins has served the state since 1997 and has continually fended off strong challenges, but Jackson hopes his working-class bona fides will align with Maine's shifting politics.

“Democrats are fighting for the [working class],” Jackson told Newsweek in an interview. “They’re fighting for them every day, but you don’t hear them talking about it because we don’t talk about our priorities to the extent that we need to. We just need to get back to economics.”

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Harris took Maine in 2024, and it is the only seat available for Democrats to flip in a state where they topped Trump. Democrats must also defend several of their own seats

The two states they most need to protect are Michigan and New Hampshire. A Trafalgar survey showed Democratic Representative Chris Pappas six points ahead of former Republican Senator John Sununu in New Hampshire. In Michigan, Marist placed Democrat Abdul El-Sayed seven points ahead of former GOP Representative Mike Rogers in Michigan.

“This race is top versus down, and [Rogers] has been on top for far too long, trading on his relationships to people in power to make money to go golfing with his buddies," El-Sayed told Newsweek in an interview. "The way that I explain Donald Trump is that people were so sick and tired of the establishment on either side of the parties."

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The shifts extend beyond the Senate. Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted 11 House races toward Democrats on September 29, following eight Democratic shifts two weeks earlier. Its September 22 update also moved Michigan’s Senate race to “Leans Democratic” while identifying Democratic movement in Iowa and even Kansas.

Those changes suggest the Republican problem is no longer confined to a handful of races.

The National Republican Congressional Committee did not return Newsweek's request for comment, but in an October 2 appearance on Fox, NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson said, "We have a battlefield, a map that favors Republicans. We’ve got better candidates. We’ve gone out and recruited some of the best candidates we’ve ever had."

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The Republican-held House seats facing the greatest danger include seats in Arizona, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia, where election forecasters have recently shifted races toward Democrats. A larger second tier of toss-ups stretches through California, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Texas and Wisconsin.

The most vulnerable seats are Arizona’s 1st Congressional District and New Jersey’s 7th District. On September 25, the Cook Political Report moved both from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic,” signaling that Democrats had gained a discernible, although not decisive, advantage. Arizona’s seat is open following Representative David Schweikert’s retirement, while Republican Representative Thomas Kean Jr., who was absent from Congress for several months earlier this year, is seeking reelection in New Jersey.

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That imbalance is central to the fight for control of the lower chamber. Sixteen of Cook Political Report’s 22 toss-ups are Republican-held, compared with six Democratic-held seats, and many of these seats are favored by some forecasters to flip Democrat. According to VoteHub, all those seats lean toward Democrats. However, the two Michigan seats have just a slight tilt.

A shift in the House majority would have consequences beyond the number of Republican seats lost. The majority party elects the Speaker, controls committee leadership and determines which legislation reaches the floor. A Democratic House could constrain the Republican administration during its final two years, increase congressional investigations and block parts of the president’s legislative agenda.

Many House Democrats have indicated a desire to impeach Trump. If the left takes the majority, impeachment could become possible. If Democrats take the Senate, the president could face a very politically painful impeachment trial, even if they don't have the 60 votes required to remove him from office. Many of Trump's hopes for the second term could hinge on these election results.

For more analysis from us on the numbers shaping U.S. politics and the 2026 midterms, sign up for Newsweek's Midterms Monitor newsletter.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to help produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton and Geoffrey Rowland.