Republicans Face Mounting Warning Signs With 45 Days Until Midterms - Newsweek
With just 45 days remaining until the November 3 midterm elections, Republicans are confronting a series of warning signs across the political map that have raised concerns about the party's prospects for retaining control of Congress and protecting key statewide offices.
A new poll in North Carolina, signs of strain between some Republicans and President Donald Trump, increasingly competitive races in states long considered GOP strongholds, and growing debate inside Republican circles about where to spend precious campaign resources have all contributed to a difficult stretch for the party.
The developments come as Democrats continue to hold sizable leads in several generic-ballot surveys and major election forecasters increasingly view Republican control of the Senate and House as a less certain proposition than it appeared earlier this year.
Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment.
Perhaps the most alarming sign for Republicans this week came in North Carolina, a state Trump carried in all three of his presidential campaigns.
Former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, held a 15-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the latest poll of the North Carolina Senate race from a GOP-affiliated pollster. The survey published Thursday gave Cooper one of his largest leads yet among North Carolina voters.
Cooper’s support stood at 49 percent, while 34 percent of respondents said they planned to cast their ballots for Whatley, the survey from Harper Polling, first reported by The Carolina Journal, found. Five percent said they would vote for other candidates, and the rest were undecided.
It surveyed 608 likely voters from September 13-15, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.97 percentage points.
The poll is notable because Harper Polling was founded by Brock McCleary who served as the National Republican Congressional Committee’s polling director.
The survey is not an outlier. Other recent polls have also shown Cooper leading by comfortable margins, reinforcing Democratic hopes of flipping a seat currently held by retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis.
The race is critical to Senate control. Democrats need to pick up four seats to win a majority, and North Carolina has long been viewed as one of their most realistic pickup opportunities.
The concerns extend beyond polling.
In a report published by Semafor this week, Republican senators openly discussed difficult strategic decisions the party could soon face as it tries to preserve its Senate majority.
One unnamed Republican senator told the outlet that GOP leaders should consider shifting resources away from races where candidates are failing to gain traction, specifically citing Georgia and North Carolina.
"These are always tough decisions, but it's a zero-sum game," the senator said. "North Carolina and Georgia have consistently shown us behind."
Senator John Cornyn of Texas offered an even bleaker assessment, telling Semafor that Georgia appeared "pretty close to done" while North Carolina was "close to that."
The comments reflect growing anxiety inside Republican ranks as Democrats maintain advantages in both states.
Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan analysis of campaigns for Senate, House, governor and president, told Newsweek the concerns are not new.
"There have been warning signs for Republicans for at least most of the year, if not before," Gonzales said Saturday. "Any midterm election with an unpopular president is potentially treacherous for his party."
He said Democrats do not necessarily need a wave election to win the House, but Republicans' problems are creating opportunities in places Democrats are not usually competitive.
"The president's poor job approval rating has laid the foundation for Democrats to win in states where they normally don't have any business competing," Gonzales said.
Republicans are also facing unexpected turbulence in Texas.
A new Siena College/ReconMR survey found Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa leading Republican Governor Greg Abbott by four points (49 percent to 45 percent), marking the first time a major poll has shown Abbott trailing during the 2026 campaign. However, a separate Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey shows Abbott leading Hinojosa 49 percent to 46 percent.
Although other surveys continue to show Abbott narrowly ahead and forecasters still rate the race as Likely Republican, the result added to broader concerns about Republican performance in a state Trump carried by 14 points in 2024.
The Senate contest is also proving more competitive than many Republicans expected. Multiple recent surveys have shown Democratic nominee James Talarico either leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton or running neck-and-neck with him.
The increasingly competitive environment has fueled concerns that Republicans could be forced to spend heavily defending seats and offices in a state that has traditionally been considered safely Republican.
At the same time, several Republicans seeking reelection have shown signs of putting distance between themselves and Trump as his approval ratings have slipped.
Florida Representative Maria Elvira Salazar released a television advertisement criticizing aspects of the administration's immigration crackdown.
Addressing Trump directly, Salazar warned that some immigration enforcement efforts had gone "too far" and argued that many Hispanic voters who supported him in 2024 now felt "betrayed."
The congresswoman's criticism represented one of the most public breaks from the White House by a Republican running in a competitive district.
In Kansas, Attorney General Kris Kobach, one of Trump's earliest and most loyal allies, said this week that he would not seek Trump's endorsement for his reelection campaign.
"I don't think it's necessary," Kobach said.
Kobach also acknowledged that decisions surrounding endorsements often depend on a president's popularity and noted that candidates may choose to emphasize or downplay such support in general elections depending on the political environment.
Several Republicans in competitive House and Senate races have recently broken with Trump on issues including tariffs, the Iran war, immigration and data centers, reflecting concerns about how those issues are playing with voters in key battlegrounds.
Among them are Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Roger Marshall of Kansas, who have criticized aspects of Trump's tariff policies, and Iowa Republicans Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who joined Democrats this week in backing limits on U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict.
Cornyn has also questioned Trump's push to make himself the centerpiece of the midterms, saying he does not see that strategy as particularly appealing to independents and disaffected Democrats.
Republicans' concerns are unfolding as Trump's national numbers remain weak.
A Marquette Law School poll released Saturday found Trump's approval rating among self-described "very conservative" Americans fell from 84 percent in July to 76 percent in September. Among that group, disapproval rose from 16 percent to 24 percent.
The same survey found Trump's overall approval rating at 37 percent and his net approval rating deteriorating to -26, his weakest result of his second term in Marquette polling.
The survey was conducted from September 2-9 and interviewed 1,023 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. For registered voters, the sample size is 864, with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 581 with a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.
Political scientists told Newsweek the findings should be interpreted cautiously because the subgroup sample size was relatively small. Still, they suggested the movement could reflect broader frustrations over issues including inflation, the economy and the Iran war.
Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, said turnout could matter more than party switching.
"Voting for a Democratic alternative is a higher bar than stating lack of approval," Reeher said. "But it suggests more about potential turnout effects than vote choice. And in a midterm, that's really important."
Gonzales told Newsweek that turnout may ultimately determine whether Republicans can overcome their current problems.
"Republicans need to boost turnout. They know they have a problem," he said, pointing to the party's unusual decision to hold a nationally televised midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month. The event featured Trump and other top Republicans and was designed largely to energize the GOP base rather than persuade swing voters.
His assessment reflects a broader concern among Republicans that while Trump's core supporters remain loyal, many competitive races could be decided by independents and less-engaged Republican voters whose enthusiasm appears softer than in previous cycles.
"We know Democratic turnout is going to be high,” he said. “We know independents have flipped from Trump to Democrats. If Republican turnout is low, those are the conditions for a Democratic wave."
He added that if Trump can successfully energize the Republican base in the closing weeks of the campaign, Republicans would likely retain their Senate majority.
One of the country's most closely watched election forecasting outlets, Sabato's Crystal Ball, shifted eight House races toward Democrats this week, including four seats previously viewed as safely Republican. The changes affected districts in Arkansas, Nevada, New York and Ohio, suggesting Democrats may be expanding the battleground into traditionally Republican territory.
The move came after a string of favorable national polls for Democrats. Recent surveys from YouGov, Reuters/Ipsos, and The New York Times/Siena College have all shown Democrats holding significant leads on the generic congressional ballot, with some reaching high single digits or double digits.
Meanwhile, several major Senate forecasting models now view Republican control of the chamber as far less secure than it appeared just a few months ago.
Decision Desk HQ currently gives Democrats a narrow edge to win Senate control at 52 percent. FiftyPlusOne places Democrats' chances at 65 percent as of Saturday morning, while Nate Silver's FLIPR model recently put Democratic odds of retaking the chamber at nearly 60 percent.
Even forecasters that still see Republicans as slight favorites have acknowledged the landscape has become more challenging. Sabato's Crystal Ball recently moved Texas from Lean Republican to Toss-up.
Democrats argue Republicans are paying a political price for economic frustrations and Trump's unpopularity.
"Republicans are facing record-low approval numbers and have no midterm message after spiking costs, raising gas prices, and driving up inflation," Kendall Witmer, deputy communications director for the Democratic National Committee, told Newsweek Friday night.
"The American people deserve leaders who are working for them, not against them, and that's why Democrats are fighting to lower costs, improve healthcare, create good-paying jobs, and stop corruption. While Trump and Republicans work for billionaires and continue to rig the economy against working people, Democrats fight for everyday Americans."
Republicans have pushed back on arguments that polling points toward an impending collapse.
"Polls serve as a snapshot in time, not a crystal ball, and Newsweek's attempt to cherry-pick data to manufacture Republican collapse is lazy spin," Republican National Committee national press secretary Natalie Baldassarre told Newsweek on Saturday. "The RNC will be aggressively competing in battleground races and will deploy whatever resources necessary to save our country from the Democrats' far-left agenda."
Republicans remain favorites in many of the races that will determine control of Congress, and the party still holds advantages associated with incumbency, fundraising and state-level infrastructure.
But the final 45 days of the campaign are increasingly becoming a test of whether Trump can re-energize the coalition that returned him to the White House in 2024.
As Gonzales noted, Democrats likely do not need a wave election to win the House. The more consequential question may be whether Republicans can generate enough turnout among their own voters to offset Democratic enthusiasm and continued weakness among independents.
For now, Republicans still have multiple paths to retaining control of Congress, especially the Senate. But the combination of weak presidential approval ratings, increasingly competitive races in historically Republican territory, and growing concern among some GOP strategists suggests a political environment that is more challenging than it appeared just a few months ago.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Steve Mollman and Anthony Murray.
