Tiffany in Striking Distance of Flipping Wisconsin After Break With Trump - Newsweek

A Marquette Law poll released on Wednesday shows that the race between Republican Representative Tom Tiffany and Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley for Wisconsin governor is a statistical tie, as Tiffany has broken with President Donald Trump recently on beef imports, renaming Lake Ontario, data centers and more.

The poll shows that Crowley has 49 percent of the vote among likely voters, compared to Tiffany's 46 percent and 5 percent are undecided. Crowley has 46 percent of the vote among registered voters compared to Tiffany's 45 percent, while 9 percent are undecided. The margin of error for likely voters in the poll is 4.8 percent and among registered voters is 4.3 percent.

Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during midterm elections. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.

The swing state's gubernatorial seat is currently held by incumbent two-term Democratic Governor Tony Evers. Both Republicans and Democrats are keen on taking the seat after Evers announced his retirement.

When reached for comment, Crowley's campaign sent Newsweek a statement regarding the new poll saying, "We've seen unprecedented spending from Trump-aligned billionaires, with three of them putting nearly $10 million into Tom Tiffany's campaign and outside groups like Richard Uihlein's super PAC and the Koch network adding more than $15 million more, and Wisconsinites are still choosing David Crowley because they know David gets it and has their back," Campaign Manager Garren Randolph said.

"We're holding strong, but nobody should mistake a lead for a finish line, because these corrupt billionaires will stop at nothing to buy this election. Tom Tiffany isn’t running to serve the people of Wisconsin, he’s running to serve the billionaires, and we’re going to make sure every voter knows it now ‘til November 3rd.”

In an email to Newsweek on Wednesday, Tiffany responded to the poll saying: "The more voters learn about David Crowley’s tax-hiking record, the more they’ll see how wrong he is for Wisconsin. He’s raised taxes every year as Milwaukee County Executive, introduced legislation requiring taxpayers to pay for tampons in boys’ public-school bathrooms, supports making you pay for benefits for illegal immigrants, and flies to California to raise money with Kamala Harris. David Crowley wants more of your paycheck. I’m running to give more of it back. I’ll return the $3 billion surplus, lower property taxes, and cut income taxes by 10% for working families."

The new poll shows a slightly closer race compared to last month among likely voters when Crowley secured 49 percent compared to Trump-endorsed Tiffany's 44 percent. The race however was tied last month at 44 percent for both candidates among registered voters.

Compared to last month's poll, Tiffany's support has risen 4 points among Republicans while Crowley's Democratic support dropped 2 points. Crowley's support among independents fell 11 percentage points, Tiffany secured a 2 percent bump with the group and the percentage of independents who are undecided rose by 8 points.

Crowley's favorability in the poll is 31 percent compared to an unfavorable rating of 44 percent. Tiffany's favorability is 39 percent compared to a 45 percent unfavorable rating. The poll also highlights that Trump's approval rating sank to 38 percent and his disapproval rating is now at 60 percent. In last month's poll the president's approval rating was 40 percent compared to a 59 percent disapproval rating.

Democrats are hoping to capitalize on Trump's dropping approval ratings in state and national polls as the midterm elections are less than five weeks away. The president's overall approval and ranking on key policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have slipped as households across America are flagging affordability concerns.

The poll was conducted from September 16-23, 2026, among 843 registered voters in Wisconsin and 692 likely voters.

Tiffany broke with Trump recently on a slew of issues.

Last month Trump signed an executive order to rename Lake Ontario as "Lake America." The move sparked new diplomatic tensions in the already growing rift between Canada and United States amid trade negotiations.

“I believe the Great Lakes are the Great Lakes and should stay Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, Lake Ontario — I mean, unless you’re suggesting we name Lake Michigan, Lake Wisconsin,” Tiffany said, according to Wisconsin Public Radio.

The Wisconsin Republican also separated his stance from Trump on a growing midterm concern--data centers.

The president has touted artificial intelligence in the past and even rebranded it "super intelligence" on Tuesday, saying that AI is a "fake word." The administration has been an advocate for states and communities to welcome the centers as well as pushing for the U.S. to grow its capabilities on artificial intelligence.

Tiffany has said that "we should end all subsidies for data centers. These are some of the wealthiest companies in the world, and the people of Wisconsin should not be subsidizing them," according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel last month.

In an interview earlier this year with PBS Wisconsin, Tiffany called data centers "exciting new technology" while adding in part, "I think we need to make sure on the energy side of it that we do not harm existing ratepayers, so residential ratepayers and manufacturers."

Trump recently announced a plan to waive tariffs on imported beef to help lower prices of the grocery store staple for Americans at home.

Tiffany reacted last month saying he was standing with Wisconsin farmers who shouldn't be penalized "by having beef that comes in from other countries," the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported.

A Platform Communications poll showed Crowley up 4 points with 48 percent compared to Tiffany's 44 percent. The poll surveyed 500 likely voters from August 12 to 13, 2026, and had a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

An RMG Research poll commissioned by the Institute for Reforming Government, showed Crowley had 46 percent compared to Tiffany's 43 percent. The poll surveyed 800 Wisconsin registered voters from July 20–24, 2026, and had a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

The Cook Political Report currently rates the race as a toss-up.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins