“Trump and Putin Are Popping Champagne”: The AfD’s Victory in Saxony-Anhalt Will Weigh on Europe’s Future - Le Figaro
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By weakening Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s influence, the unprecedented victory of the far-right, neo-Nazi party in this former East German state is more than just a regional upheaval.
While European institutions refrain from commenting on elections in member states, behind this facade of neutrality, the historic victory of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, September 6, sent shivers down spines in Brussels and other capitals.
“This is a grave moment for Europe,” French Minister for European Affairs Benjamin Haddad said on X. For Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, “the AfD’s platform is a betrayal of the European spirit: historical revisionism, placing foreigners in camps, the glorification of xenophobia even in school curricula, and bringing the media to heel.”
Although the election concerns only one German state with 2 million residents, no one in Brussels sees it as merely a regional upheaval. The AfD’s breakthrough is interpreted as a sign of momentum; the sovereignist and Europhobic far right continues to gain ground in Europe, while undermining one of the EU’s main pillars. The party’s showing in Saxony-Anhalt thus potentially represents a turning point “significant for the systemic stability of the European Union,” says Almut Möller, director at the European Policy Center (EPC).
Germany, where the far right had been kept at bay by a “cordon sanitaire,” or firewall, has now joined the list of countries where nationalist forces are vying for power, as has already been the case in Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Hungary and Poland. In the European Parliament, where French Reconquest party MEP Sarah Knafo sits alongside the AfD, the cordon sanitaire has already been broken for the past two years.
In recent months, the AfD has used its votes to help pass legislation by joining a majority that unites the right and the far right — an alternative to the traditional centrist consensus — under the leadership of Bavarian Manfred Weber, president of the European People’s Party (EPP).
“The extremist threat, largely thanks to the surrender of the traditional right, is gaining ground in Europe and the world,” Spain’s Socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said on September 7.
A potential first consequence is the weakening of Berlin’s position on the European stage. At the very least, the AfD’s breakthrough is likely to disrupt the agenda of the coalition led by conservative Friedrich Merz. Preoccupied by this new domestic reality, the chancellor risks being less visible or more cautious on the European stage. “A weakened, indecisive Germany, unable to promote the necessary reforms, will have an indirect impact on the collective power of the European Union,” Möller says.
This is especially true given that the French government, nearing the end of its term, is also losing credibility as the presidential election approaches. At the same time, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose stability is praised after four years in power in Rome, is now being overtaken on the right by the National Future party led by retired General Roberto Vannacci. Moreover, parliamentary elections are also set to take place in Italy next year, as well as in Spain and Poland. Sunday’s AfD shock could have repercussions far beyond Saxony-Anhalt.
“In Poland, only idiots or traitors can rejoice at the AfD’s triumph in Germany,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, indicating the Confederation and Law and Justice (PiS) parties.
Beyond political paralysis, this shift in the political center of gravity could also fuel Euroskepticism. “The AfD’s victory could lead the Christian Democrats to pursue a populist policy that mimics the far right, which, in the end, risks nothing less than the disappearance of traditional conservatives,” said German Green MEP Daniel Freund.
Among the most pressing European issues, this will clearly affect the EU’s future budget, which is currently under negotiation. Merz has already taken on the lead role of the “frugal four,” calling for budget cuts of several hundred billion euros. With the AfD breathing down his neck, he is unlikely to change his stance, to the detriment of the EU’s future investments.
Other European commitments could bear the brunt. The AfD’s hostility toward Ukraine and its explicit support for Russia, combined with the promise made by Louis Aliot of France’s National Rally (RN) to “turn off the tap” on aid to Ukraine, mean a sword of Damocles hangs over Kyiv.
“Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin popped the champagne on Sunday evening,” said French Renew MEP Bernard Guetta. “Trump, because he makes no secret of his strategy to rely on so-called ‘patriotic’ forces to weaken Europe. Putin, because he can tell himself that it is in his best interest to wait seven or eight months to win the game in Ukraine, then make a move on Moldova or the Baltic states, and carry out his plan to gain the upper hand over Europe.”
For now, aid to Ukraine — to which Berlin has become the largest contributor — is not in question, as Merz said on Monday. But the AfD’s rhetoric on the subject is gaining traction, even as Moscow-orchestrated hybrid attacks aimed at undermining public morale are on the rise. For Möller, this is not “a change in policy, but an erosion of trust,” which risks weakening the consensus in Germany and across Europe.
