Trump's own family member concedes GOP may lose over president's decision - Newsweek

The ongoing war with Iran could cost President Donald Trump's party the midterms, his daughter-in-law said in an interview Tuesday, suggesting Iranians were "holding out" on a solution before the election.

In an interview with British journalist Harry Cole, Lara Trump said that losing both chambers of Congress could be worth it if it means Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon, even as one of the major fallouts of the conflict, higher gas prices, continues to be a key concern for voters.

"Look, I think he just understands that when Iran gets a nuclear weapon, it doesn’t matter who is in charge of the House. It doesn’t matter the majority in the Senate," Trump, wife of the president's son Eric, said. "This world is a really frightening place and you really can’t come back from that."

Lara Trump's acknowledgment of the impact of the conflict on potential GOP voters marks a somewhat rare break from the messaging from the Trump administration and the president's family, who have argued the war is politically defensible.

"The Iran War and resulting inflation at the gas pump and causing high prices at the grocery store may be the deciding factor in close races this midterm," Brian Darling, former counsel for Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and commentator, told Newsweek. "I agree with Laura Trump that the midterm elections may cost Republicans control of Congress in the midterm election.

"If President Trump can credibly show swift progress toward an end to the Iran War, the loss of support for Republicans in close races may be mitigated. Right now, the Iran War is a drag on Republican chances of holding control of the Senate."

Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment Wednesday afternoon.

Trump spoke to Cole on his show "Harry Cole Saves the West" Tuesday, during which he asked her, as a member of the president's family and a former Republican National Committee (RNC) chair, if she was figuratively banging her head against a wall over the war dragging on.

He asked her if the lack of a deal between the U.S. and Iran would cost the president his legacy.

"Well, it could cost him these midterms," Trump said. "I think Donald Trump’s legacy has yet to be written and I think that, in a lot of ways, maybe—I still say he’s going to go down in history as one of the greatest presidents—if not, the greatest America has ever seen.

"But you're right, the last two years really matter. He really hates the way things have gone with Iran."

Trump said she felt the Iranians were holding out on a deal until after the U.S. midterms, believing it would give them an advantage. She also said the president had achieved much in the Middle East.

Recent polling has shown that American voters have turned sharply against the conflict, which began late February.

A recent Economist/YouGov poll, conducted September 18-21, found 57 percent of Americans felt that going to war with Iran was the wrong decision, while 61 percent wanted a deal to end the conflict as soon as possible. A Fox News poll released September 17 also reported widespread unhappiness with the war, with 60 percent believing military action was the wrong decision.

While Republican support is stronger than that from Democrats, it has been waning in recent months. In April, 68 percent said going to war was the right thing to do. By September, that had fallen to 53 percent, per YouGov's polling.

As that support has lessened, the number of GOP lawmakers voicing their concerns has grown, while the chances of Democratic Party candidates flipping some GOP seats has also increased.

While Republican Party leaders, including House Speaker Mike Johnson and Vice President JD Vance, have urged voters to allow them to keep working on the party's agenda by voting them back into their majority in Congress, Trump's suggestion that losing both chambers might be necessary stands in contrast to that wish.

The midterms are often seen as a test for the sitting president's popularity, particularly when their party holds Congress too.

Recent polls have shown that Democrats currently hold the lead for who will win control. RealClearPolitics currently shows Democrats on 50.6 percent of the vote compared to 42.3 percent for the GOP on the generic congressional ballot. Another aggregator, Polls Max, showed the split at 48.9 percent to 42 percent in favor of the Democrats.

That shift compared to 2024 is not completely down to the Iran War, with other concerns around the cost of living, inflation, jobs, and health care all factoring in as major worries for Americans.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, previously told Newsweek: "Overall it's pretty clear that Trump's numbers are worse now than they were eight years ago. Dissatisfaction with the economy/inflation is probably the biggest reason why."