Tusk warns of ‘accidental’ Russian strikes against Ukraine’s allies in fall and winter
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned Thursday that Russia could launch drone or missile strikes in the coming months against countries supporting Ukraine and play them off as accidents.
Speaking in the country’s parliament, Tusk said intelligence assessments from NATO, Ukraine and Poland indicated that “the most likely scenario for the next few months” is that Russia will step up attacks against Ukraine and its allies, including Poland.
Tusk said Russia’s aim was to “weaken NATO’s integrity” and convince its members that “Article 5 is more theoretical than practical.”
Under NATO’s Article 5, an armed attack on one member is viewed as an attack on all. Russian hybrid attacks, espionage and stray drones have probed the threshold of what constitutes an armed attack.
“There is a real risk that drones or other types of missiles could enter the territory of one or several NATO countries on the eastern flank and cause damage. And the official narrative will be that it was an accident and that there is no reason for anyone to consider any kind of NATO response,” Tusk said.
He also said that “not all politicians in the West, in the United States or Europe are thinking about how to defend Poland, Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, dreaming of immediately proving that they are ironclad allies and will come to Poland’s aid under Article 5.”
“You know that yourselves,” Tusk added.
U.S. President Donald Trump has on numerous occasions cast doubt on the principle of collective defense.
The prime minister also said that some politicians and political groups in Europe were “just waiting for an excuse” to declare, in the event of a conflict, that “we are not going to die for Poland, we are not going to die for Latvia or Lithuania.”
The warning came as Tusk said the coming fall and winter months could prove “tragically critical” for Ukraine, with Russia expected to carry out continuous, high-intensity strikes on major Ukrainian cities while targeting warehouses, rail infrastructure and other logistics essential to the country’s defense.
Such attacks have intensified in recent weeks, also covering western Ukraine close to the Polish border, as Russia has increased its use of jet-powered drones that Ukraine has struggled to intercept.
