Union warns workers paying price of Canada-U.S. trade war

The United Steel Workers (USW) union is calling on the governments of Canada and the U.S. to resume trade talks for the benefit of workers on both sides of the border.

The USW is the largest private-sector union in North America, supporting more than 225,000 members in Canada and 850,000 in the U.S. It supports workers in a variety of industries, including steel, forestry, mining, health care, education and more.

Brown delivered a message of unity and solidarity for workers across North America in light of their shared interests and values. But with an escalating trade war, she said the commonalities have quickly transitioned to common fears.

“When a steelworker in Pennsylvania loses work because of market disruption, workers in Ontario feel it. When an aluminum worker in Quebec faces uncertainty, workers in Ohio feel it. When manufacturing jobs are threatened in one country, the effects ripple across the entire integrated North American economy,” she said.

In March, the Government of Canada announced its Workplace Tariff Response program, which committed an investment of $570 million over three years to support workers in the steel and lumber industries, as well as other workers affected by global market shifts.

But Brown said the two countries are stronger together, especially in light of international markets that are flooded with cheaper manufactured goods.

“When Canada and the United States work together, workers win,” she said.

When the two countries are at odds, it’s the workers who carry the burden, she said.

Depending on how long the newest round of 50 per cent tariffs remains in effect, that could amount to approximately 90,000 jobs lost across Canada, Trevor Tombe, a professor of economics at the University of Calgary, told Global News.

Approximately two thirds of those losses would come from exporters who move products directly affected by the tariffs, while the other third would come from industries that supply to, or support, those exporters.

“It’s tough to know by how much because this does depend on how long the tariffs last,” Tombe said. “In the very short term, a business might simply absorb the cost or maybe cut back on hours rather than on actual employees. But over time, it would be hard to avoid job losses.”

He said the biggest factor right now is the uncertainty of how long the tariffs will remain in effect, how much financial impact they will have on businesses, and how Canada will continue to respond.

He added that uncertainty does not directly relate to job losses in terms of layoffs, but it can lead to businesses slowing their hiring rates and posting fewer vacancies as they assess the current economic climate.

“So long term, though, the effect is really not about employment, but productivity and living standards and income levels. But in the short term, it’s absolutely about employment,” Tombe said.

Tombe estimates that as a whole, job losses resulting from the 50 per cent tariffs would contract the Canadian economy by approximately 0.4 per cent. The Royal Bank of Canada also estimates that 0.4 per cent of Canada’s GDP would be directly impacted.

“So it’s not a recession-inducing kind of shock,” Tombe said.

But not knowing how this will play out could have a detrimental impact.

“The unpredictability of U.S. policy means that this could escalate very suddenly or we could have a negotiated outcome pretty quick as well,” he said. “The uncertainty is high and if this escalates, that’s where the concern should be greatest.”