UP Rajya Sabha polls: BJP has 7 locked, SP 2. Who gets the 10th seat? - The Indian Express

Political temperatures are on the rise in Uttar Pradesh ahead of the October 16 Rajya Sabha elections, with the BJP and the Samajwadi Party (SP) preparing for a closely fought contest.

The BJP and SP have the numbers to win seven and two seats respectively out of the 10 at stake. However, a contest is likely to play out for the remaining seat, with the SP already announcing two candidates and planning to field a third. The timing of the polls adds to the intrigue as they come months before the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections likely to be held early next year.

Given the fears of cross-voting, a senior BJP leader said the party was “keeping tabs” on its legislators. “If the BJP loses out to the SP’s third candidate due to cross-voting, it will send an adverse message to the people ahead of the Assembly elections,” the leader said.

The UP Assembly currently has 396 members in the 403-member House, following the death of seven MLAs in the past 11 months. Each Rajya Sabha candidate, therefore, will require 37 first-preference votes to win.

The SP has 101 MLAs. However, its effective strength is 100 as Chail MLA Puja Pal, who continues to figure in the Assembly records as an SP member, has switched to the BJP and is currently a state vice-president of the party.

Pal was expelled from the SP for alleged anti-party activities after she praised Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in the Assembly on August 14 last year over his remarks that “mafias like Atiq Ahmed had been reduced to dust”.

With the support of two Congress MLAs, the SP has 102 votes, nine short of the first-preference votes required to ensure the victory of its third candidate.

The availability of Phulpur Pawai MLA Ramakant Yadav is also under cloud. “We are doubtful about Ramakant Yadav as he is currently in jail. We are not sure whether he will be able to cast his vote,” a senior SP leader said.

The SP sprang a surprise on Wednesday after it announced Reliance Industries executive Dhanraj Nathwani as a candidate alongside five-time Rajya Sabha MP Ram Gopal Yadav.

“The counting will be completed. It’s a matter of counting. This exercise (deciding on a third candidat) needs patience. Several of our people want to come back because they are unhappy there (in the NDA),” SP president Akhilesh Yadav said on Thursday.

Akhilesh’s comments indicate that the party is banking on Muslim MLAs of the BJP’s NDA partners as well as “disenchanted” BJP legislators would vote in its favour.

“Both the Muslim MLAs of the RLD (Rashtriya Lok Dal led by Jayant Chaudhary) were elected while contesting in alliance with the SP in 2022. We are hopeful that they will cross-vote in our favour. We hope the same from Abbas Ansari and three more MLAs of the SBSP (Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party),” a senior SP leader said.

Ansari, the son of late gangster-politician Mukhtar Ansari, won the Mau Sadar seat in 2022 when the SBSP was in alliance with the SP.

“If cross-voting happens, the SP’s third candidate will win,” the senior SP leader said.

The BJP has 255 MLAs and its NDA allies add another 33: Apna Dal (S) 13, RLD 9, SBSP 6, and NISHAD Party 5. This takes its tally to 288.

With the support of Puja Pal; unaffiliated MLAs Manoj Pandey, Rakesh Pratap Singh, and Abhay Singh who were expelled from the SP  in June 2025 for cross-voting in the 2024 Rajya Sabha polls; and two MLAs of the Raja Bhaiyya-led Jansatta Dal (Loktantrik), the NDA’s effective strength reaches 294, two short of the required 296 (37 for each) first-preference votes to ensure victory of eight candidates. Of the 10 seats that will go to polls, the BJP holds eight at present.

With the BJP camp not ruling out cross-voting by SBSP MLAs, a BJP leader said, “This may reduce the NDA’s strength to 292,” a BJP leader said.

However, the BJP is placing its bets on Rakesh Pandey, Vinod Chaturvedi and Ashutosh Maurya, who had also cross-voted in 2024 but still continue to be listed as SP MLAs in Assembly records as Akhilesh had not expelled them citing “good conduct”.

“We are hopeful that Rakesh Pandey, Vinod Chaturvedi and Ashutosh Maurya will follow their ‘inner voice’ and support NDA candidates as they did in the last Rajya Sabha polls. If they support us, the NDA’s strength will become 295, and we will need only one more vote to ensure a win for the eighth candidate,” a senior BJP leader said.

Chaturvedi told The Indian Express that he would vote in favour of the BJP candidate.

Lalmani is an Assistant Editor with The Indian Express, and is based in New Delhi. He covers politic... Read More