Vivek Ramaswamy Dealt Double Polling Blow Against Amy Acton Within 24 Hours - Newsweek

Republican Vivek Ramaswamy trailed Democrat Amy Acton in two new polls of the Ohio governor’s race released Tuesday by Marist University and Suffolk University, a blow to the GOP candidate in the conservative-leaning state just five weeks before the midterm elections.

Democrats are hoping to stage a comeback in Ohio this year. The Buckeye State was once a battleground that backed former President Barack Obama in the 2008 and 2012 elections but has since shifted rightward, backing President Donald Trump three times, including a double-digit victory in 2024.

Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who rose to national prominence during his 2024 presidential run, is running against Acton, who led the Ohio Department of Health during the COVID-19 pandemic. The race is expected to be one of the closest of the midterms, with forecasters like the Cook Political Report considering it a toss-up.

Acton led by 9 points, 50 percent to 41 percent, in the Suffolk poll. It is her strongest lead in any survey since February. Meanwhile, she held a 6-point lead in the Marist poll, 50 percent to 44 percent.

The Suffolk poll surveyed 500 likely voters from September 23 to September 27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The Marist poll surveyed 1,298 registered voters from September 24 to September 27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Newsweek reached out to the Acton and Ramaswamy campaigns for comment via email.

Ramaswamy spokesperson Evan Machan downplayed the polling in a statement to Newsweek.

“Every election year, the media does the exact same thing: they follow public polls, build their coverage around them, and treat them like gospel. And every election year, those polls are inevitably wrong. You would think at some point the media would learn the lesson, but every cycle they fall for it all over again,” Machan said.

Acton’s Campaign Manager Philip Stein told Newsweek that voters in Ohio are “ready to elect Acton because they know she’s the only choice who has proven she’ll show up anywhere and work with anyone to bring down costs, clean up corruption, and work towards an Ohio where everyone can thrive.”

“While out-of-touch billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy and his billionaire buddies try to buy this election by spending tens of millions of dollars flooding the airwaves with misleading AI ads, Dr. Acton has remained laser-focused on running a grassroots campaign traveling to every corner of Ohio,” Stein said.

The pair of polls found that independent voters and women are bolstering Acton’s showing in the state.

Acton led by 25 points among independents, 57 percent to 32 percent, in the Marist poll. She also led by 12 points among women, 53 percent to 41 percent.

In the Suffolk poll, Acton led independents by 37 points, 64 percent to 27 percent. She led women by 19 points, 55 percent to 36 percent.

For comparison, Trump won both groups in the state in 2024. He won independents by 2 points, 50 percent to 48 percent, and women by a single point, 50 percent to 49 percent, according to CNN.

Despite Trump’s strong showing in Ohio just two years ago, Democrats have targeted the state amid a more favorable national environment. Republicans are facing voter backlash over the ongoing state of the economy and the high cost of living. Soaring gas prices amid the Iran war have also added pressure to Americans’ finances ahead of the midterms.

Historically, the party of the president suffers midterm losses when his approval rating is low, and Democrats believe Trump’s approval rating reaching record lows could open the door to winning back voters in states like Ohio.

The Ohio governor’s race is expected to be one of the closest of the midterms, and recent polling reflects that.

A poll from YouGov and Bowling Green State University released this month gave Acton a 3-point lead, 48 percent to 45 percent. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from September 1 to September 10, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Ramaswamy, however, held a 2-point lead in a Fox News poll, 50 percent to 48 percent. It surveyed 1,008 registered voters from August 6 to August 10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Prediction markets show a close race, with Acton having a 61 percent chance of victory on Kalshi, and carrying a 62 percent chance of victory on Polymarket as of Tuesday.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.

Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Trump won Ohio by about 11 percentage points in 2024, an improvement on his 2020 and 2016 performances, when he won by about 8 points each time. But Ohio was viewed as more competitive for Democrats not long before. Obama narrowly carried Ohio in 2008 and 2012.

Trump made inroads with white, working-class voters who were previously more divided between Democrats and Republicans. His gains came from rural counties as well as the northeastern region near Cleveland. Democrats have gained some ground in Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs, but not enough to offset Republican gains in rural areas.

Still, Ohio has been competitive in some recent elections.

Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown won reelection in 2018, then lost in 2024 by fewer than 4 percentage points. He is running for Senate against GOP incumbent Jon Husted this year, and polls point to a competitive race.

Ohio last elected a Democratic governor in 2006, when Ted Strickland, then a member of the House, flipped the seat as part of a blue wave. In 2010, a stronger year for the GOP, Republican John Kasich defeated Strickland by about 2 points.

Since then, Ohio has elected moderate Republican governors like Kasich in his reelection and Mike DeWine, who is ineligible to seek a third term in office.

Ramaswamy ran for president in 2024 but was unable to overtake Trump in the primary. He was still able to become a favorite among many conservatives and gained national political attention while focusing his criticism on "woke" corporate culture.

Upon his return to the White House, Trump selected the entrepreneur-turned-politician to co-lead the Department of Government Efficiency, but Ramaswamy stepped away from the position in its early days before announcing his gubernatorial run.

Trump has endorsed Ramaswamy’s campaign for governor.

Ramaswamy easily won the Republican primary with more than 80 percent of the vote.

Acton served under DeWine as director of the Ohio Department of Health from February 2019 through June 2020, working through the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. She has also worked for nonprofits like the Columbus Foundation.

She has garnered attention—and criticism from some more progressive Democrats—for breaking from her party on key issues. She has said she does not “support boys playing in girls sports” and has said she supports Issue 3, an amendment that would put the state’s voter ID requirements into its constitution.

“This amendment has overwhelming support from Ohioans across the state," Acton said, according to WEWS in Cleveland. "As this doesn’t change what is already law, as governor, I will support it."

Acton ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Ohio’s gubernatorial race is expected to be one of the closest of the midterms. The two candidates are not expected to debate. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Dave Siminoff.