Voters splinter among parties as support for the ANC plunges - Daily Maverick

New polling suggests voters are starting to favour smaller parties rather than rallying behind the DA as the ANC loses ground across the metros ahead of November’s local government elections.

Although recent polling data indicates the ANC will lose more ground in the metros, experts warn that this can’t yet be read as a shift from the ANC to the DA. Rather, it may signal that South African politics are becoming more fragmented.

Data published on 4 September by the market research company Ipsos predicted that support for the ANC is set to slip further to just 31%, a significant decline from the 45.6% it achieved in 2021.

Other polling data published by The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation (SRF) on 9 September showed the once-solid black vote in South Africa has fragmented dramatically, with citizens dispersing their preferences among the ANC (36%), Umkhonto weSizwe party (MK) (24%), DA (13%), EFF (12%) and smaller parties (15%).

The same survey showed the ANC with 34% of voters in South Africa, with the DA at 27%, MK at 15% and the EFF at 7% of likely voters. It had a margin of error of 2.1%. It was conducted between 8 July and 31 July and used a turnout model of 53%.

Dr Ongama Mtimka, a lecturer in the department of history and political studies at Nelson Mandela University, warns that the ANC’s decline in support may signal that our political system is moving further into fragmentation.

“The trend that we are seeing in South Africa is what I’ve called dynamic fragmentation. We are seeing a reduction in the dominance of the ANC as a party without a corresponding rise of a rival party that has got any meaningful challenge to the ANC. So, the DA is rising steadily, but remains constrained when it comes to a decisive shift of electoral preferences,” Mtimka told Daily Maverick.

Ipsos found that the ANC is likely to lose its outright majorities in Mangaung and Buffalo City, sliding behind the DA in both cities, and to see significant declines in support in every other metro.

The ANC’s election campaign has got off to a faltering start. The party is currently locked in a heated dispute with the Electoral Commission (IEC) after it blamed its failure to submit candidates in key Eastern Cape municipalities on time on an alleged technical glitch.

The IEC has since disputed that there was a technical glitch at its end and refused to reopen its portal for the affected candidates. Further, the party has yet to finalise its candidates for key metros, instead publishing a list of 42 candidates across all eight metros.

But the second-biggest party by vote share, the DA, may not have cause to celebrate, as it is predicted to lose its outright majority in the City of Cape Town as well. The polling data shows that the only political party on track to win an outright majority in one of the major metros is MK.

Ipsos found that while it is likely to retain its third-place spot nationally at 14%, its support is concentrated in its stronghold of eThekwini, where it is expected to win 55% of the vote.

The results are highly dependent on voter turnout. In the Ipsos poll, only a third of respondents said they were very interested in elections and politics, 34% said they were not very interested, and the remainder were lukewarm. And the SRF poll warned that the raw data, based on respondents’ answers on the day they were asked, would differ once voter turnout was factored in.

The usefulness of polling data has also been questioned. In a Daily Maverick opinion piece, the executive director of the Mapungubwe Institute, Joel Netshitenzhe, argued that the interpretation of poll results can be influenced by researcher bias and can unduly influence voter sentiment. In particular, he pointed to the close political relationship between SRF staffers and the DA.

“Opinion polls can act as both cause and effect of voter sentiment. The pollsters purport merely to reflect preferences of the electorate. But polls can also inspire or demoralise an election campaign; and their interpretations can be weaponised to sway public opinion,” he wrote.

The big city metros are some of the most hotly contested sites in the country. According to the IEC, metros have the highest number of proportional representation contestants, led by Johannesburg at 80 parties and followed by Tshwane (72 parties), eThekwini (70 parties) and Ekurhuleni (69 parties). Widespread service delivery failures have taken centre stage in each of the key metros.

Below, we’ve unpacked the key polling numbers, frontrunning candidates and service delivery status of each metro.

Ipsos data found that Buffalo City has the tightest contest, with the DA, EFF and ANC likely to run a close race. The DA led the polls at 33%, followed by the ANC at 29% and the EFF at 27%. The polling data indicates a significant slide in ANC support in the metro. The party won an outright majority in the 2021 elections with 59.43%.

The frontrunners includeMP Mkhululi Dlevu (EFF). The ANC has offered incumbent mayor Princess Faku, former deputy minister Nocawe Mafu, Simphiwe Dzengwa and Ncedo Kumbaca as its potential candidates. The DA has announced ward candidates, but it has not selected a mayoral candidate.

The Auditor-General (AG) found that the ANC-led Buffalo City recorded a deficit of R996.01-million in the 2024/25 financial year. Meter tampering and ageing infrastructure led to R187.49-million in water losses – 41.4% of its water. The metro recorded R831.43-million in electricity losses, equating to 32.2%.

Its annual statement for the 2024/25 financial year found that up to 90% of its electricity operational budget was spent on replacing and repairing its network, necessitated by illegal connections. This work takes priority over normal maintenance work.

In its annual report, Buffalo City recorded a housing backlog of 119,024, up from 115,024 in the previous year.

The City of Cape Town has been the DA’s stronghold, although Ipsos data indicates its support is beginning to wane.

Although the party is predicted to get the strongest support at 46%, this would be a sharp decline from its 58.26% of the vote in 2021. Next are the ANC with 26%, the EFF with 11% and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) with 8%.

Mtimka said the declining support for the DA is further evidence of increasing political fragmentation.

The frontrunners for the mayoral chain include the DA leader and incumbent mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis, EFF MP Nontando Nolutshungu and the PA’s Cheslyn Daniels. The ANC has yet to confirm its candidate.

For the 2024/25 financial year, the AG gave the City its first unqualified audit with findings since 2020/21, a marked and embarrassing regression for a party that has previously campaigned on its history of clean audits.

The City recorded R112.03-million in water losses, or 5.9%, and R771.97-million in electricity losses, or 11.2% of electricity generated. The housing backlog remains high at more than 400,000 units.

The ANC and the DA are predicted to go head-to-head in Ekurhuleni, with the polling data showing that the ANC leads with 24%, a decline from its 2021 result of 38.2%, while the DA is close behind with 21%. MK is predicted to come third with 18% and ActionSA fourth with 13%.

The frontrunners are DA Gauteng provincial legislature member Khathutshelo Rasilingwane, MK’s Thulani Shongwe and ActionSA’s Xolani Khumalo. The ANC’s list of potential candidates includes incumbent mayor Nkosindiphile Xhakaza, Ekurhuleni’s finance and strategy member of the mayoral committee Jongizizwe Dlabathi, Ekurhuleni council whip Pelisa Nkunjana and Ntombi Mekgwe.

In the 2024/25 financial year, the AG gave the City a qualified audit and concluded that there is doubt that the City will be able to continue operating.

It recorded a deficit of R656.52-million and spent R2.59-billion on maintenance, equivalent to 4.2% of its property, plant and equipment value. It faces severe challenges from ageing infrastructure, vandalism and illegal connections, which contributed to R3.07-billion in electricity losses (15.5%) and R1.27-billion in water losses (25.4%).

The City has a housing backlog of more than 283,000 units.

Johannesburg is the most hotly contested metro owing to its status as the country’s economic powerhouse. The ANC is predicted to lead at 31%, a decline from its 2021 result of 36%, followed by the DA at 28%, ActionSA at 14% and the EFF at 8%.

Data published by The Common Sense and the SRF shows that in the second quarter of 2026, the DA was leading with 42% of the vote, followed by the ANC at 18% and MK at 13%.

The raw data indicates that MK’s support is concentrated among black voters at 28%, followed by the EFF at 21%, the ANC at 18% and the DA at 17%. However, the raw data may differ from the turnout model data, which estimates what the actual election results will look like on the day.

The mayoral frontrunners are the DA’s Helen Zille, ActionSA’s party head and former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba and the EFF’s Dr Tlaleng Mofokeng. The ANC has yet to confirm its candidate.

The AG gave the City a qualified audit based on its weak financial controls and poor record-keeping for the 2024/25 financial year. The City recorded R2.3-billion in debt and spent R166.22-million on maintenance, just 0.3% of its property, plant and equipment value. It recorded R2.82-billion in water losses (44.8%) and R5.67-billion in electricity losses (30%). The City has a housing backlog of more than 431,000 units.

The DA is likely to edge out the ANC and maintain a strong lead at 31% compared with the ANC’s 22%. The parties are predicted to be followed by ActionSA at 11% and the EFF at 9%.

The Common Sense and SRF study projected different results. Its July 2026 findings indicated the DA would lead at 42%, followed by the ANC at 32%, the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) at 8% and ActionSA at 7%. The study further predicted that if these results hold true in November, the DA and FF+ could form a coalition.

The frontrunners for Tshwane are former DA mayor Cilliers Brink, ActionSA’s incumbent mayor, Dr Nasiphi Moya, FF+ candidate Willie Spies and EFF treasurer-general Omphile Maotwe. The ANC has not confirmed its candidates.

The AG gave the City a qualified opinion for 2024/25. Tshwane recorded R1.70-billion in water losses (39%), R3.27-billion in electricity losses (21%) and a housing backlog of more than 508,685 units.

Ipsos predicted that eThekwini would be the only metro won by an outright majority. MK is predicted to win 55% in its first local government election in its political stronghold, beating the ANC, which led previously with 42.14%. The DA is predicted to come second with 17% while the ANC slides all the way to third with 10%, followed by the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) with 6%.

The SRF predicted that MK would lead but not with an outright majority. It projected a 33% share of the vote, followed by the DA at 23%, the ANC at 18% and the IFP at 16%.

The frontrunners are MK’s Apostle Mxolisi Phakathi, the DA’s Haniff Hoosen and the IFP’s Mkhuleko Hlengwa. The ANC’s possible candidates include incumbent mayor Cyril Xaba, Nomusa Dube-Ncube, Mina Soma-Lesoma, Thabani Everson Nyawose and Maggie Govender.

The City received an unqualified audit report in the 2024/25 year, unchanged from the previous year. It spent R3.26-billion on infrastructure, equating to 5.2% of its property, plant and equipment value. It lost more than half its water, recording R2.91-billion in water losses (58.7%) and disclosed R1.91-billion in electricity losses (11.2%). It recorded a housing backlog of more than 474,000 units.

The traditional ANC stronghold is predicted to see yet another neck-and-neck race between the ruling party and the opposition. The DA is predicted by Ipsos to win with 36%, followed by the ANC with 32%, the EFF with 17% and MK with 5%. This result would represent a significant decline for the ANC from 50.63% in 2021.

The frontrunners are DA MP Werner Pretorius, EFF MP Sam Matiase and MK’s Mapaseka Mothibi. The ANC has not confirmed its candidates.

The AG gave the City an unqualified audit for the 2024/25 financial year, unchanged from the previous year, but has raised doubts for more than five years about the municipality’s ability to remain operational. The AG found Mangaung was the worst-performing metro and was technically insolvent.

It spent R272.50-­million on infrastructure maintenance, just 2.1% of its property, plant and equipment. It lost 48% of its water, costing R495.55-million, and did not disclose its electricity losses. Its housing backlog is predicted to exceed 77,000 units.

Polling data predicts that Nelson Mandela Bay will see a tie between the top two parties. Both the ANC and DA are predicted to gain 37% of the vote, followed by the EFF at 8% and a tie for fourth place between ActionSA and PA at 5%.

The frontrunners are former DA mayor Retief Odendaal and the EFF’s Sinawo Thambo. Neither the PA nor ActionSA has an­nounced mayoral candidates. The ANC’s possible candidates include Andile Lungisa, who struck DA councillor Rano Kayser with a glass jar in 2016 and was sentenced to two years in jail, of which he served two months before release on parole. The list includes the controversial current mayor Babalwa Lobishe, Xolani Vela and Ntombi Nama.

The AG gave Nelson Mandela Bay a qualified audit outcome in 2024/25. The metro recorded a deficit of R150.04-million and underspent its infrastructure grants by more than 10%. Despite that, it spent only 2.5% of its property, plant and equipment value on maintenance. It lost more than half its water, equating to R392.56-million (52.7%), and recorded R1.48-billion in electricity losses (26.8%). The metro has a housing backlog of more than 100,000 units.

Mtimka warned that electoral fragmentation may result in “a much higher probability that there would be a scramble for several more municipalities as they shift from dominant party systems to hung councils”. DM