What will it take for Ramaphosa to fire Senzo Mchunu? - IOL

President Cyril Ramaphosa faces renewed questions over suspended Police Minister Senzo Mchunu’s future after police seized his cellphone under a Johannesburg High Court search and seizure warrant.

What exactly will it take for President Cyril Ramaphosa to fire Senzo Mchunu?

That question is becoming harder to avoid after police arrived at the suspended Police Minister's KwaZulu-Natal family home on Tuesday with a Johannesburg High Court search and seizure warrant and left with his cellphone.

A search warrant is not proof of guilt, nor is the seizure of a cellphone and Mchunu - who has not been convicted of any crime - is entitled to due process.

But that is no longer the only issue.

The question now is what threshold Ramaphosa has set for deciding whether Mchunu should remain a member of his Cabinet.

When Ramaphosa placed Mchunu on special leave in July last year, he chose not to fire him. 

The President's position has essentially been that serious allegations must be properly investigated and the facts verified before he acts.

Fair enough, but how much investigation is enough?

Since Mchunu was placed on special leave, South Africans have watched months of testimony about the state of the country's criminal justice system.

The Madlanga Commission has heard 110 witnesses over 174 days. More than 26,000 pages of testimony and 105,000 pages of documentary evidence have accumulated.

Last week, Justice Mbuyiseli Madlanga said evidence emerging before the commission was increasingly lending credence to Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi's original allegations.

The commission has not made final findings against Mchunu. 

However, police have now secured judicial authority to search Mchunu's home and seize his cellphone.

This is no longer July 2025, when Ramaphosa was confronted with allegations made at a press conference and had to decide how to respond.

More than a year of investigation has followed.

Ramaphosa has previously indicated that Mchunu's future would be determined after the Madlanga Commission completed its work.

There is now a problem with that position.

The President has extended the commission's deadline to January 25, 2027.

Does that mean Mchunu simply remains a Cabinet minister on special leave until then?

And what happens if the deadline moves again?

At some point, Ramaphosa must decide whether the standard for members of his Cabinet is the same as the standard required to convict someone in a criminal court.

Mchunu does not have to be presumed guilty for Ramaphosa to decide whether he still has confidence in him as a Cabinet minister.

Nor does removing someone from Cabinet amount to a criminal conviction.

The President has the constitutional power to appoint and dismiss ministers.

So the question confronting Ramaphosa is becoming increasingly simple, what more does he need before making that political decision?

Another witness? Another commission report? Another investigation?

Mchunu is entitled to due process, but South Africans are equally entitled to know why Ramaphosa has not acted. 

Is it because Mchunu is a key ally of his faction in the ANC, and removing him would spell the end of Ramaphosa's presidency in the ANC and ultimately the country?

After more than a year of allegations, testimony, investigations and now another police search and seizure operation, "let us wait for the commission" is becoming a harder answer to sustain.

The question is no longer simply what investigators will find about Senzo Mchunu.

It is what, exactly, Cyril Ramaphosa is waiting for.

** Lee Rondganger is the deputy editor of IOL.

Lee Rondganger is the Deputy Editor of IOL.